Relationship Lab

How a series has moved with others: the correlation of daily changes (% for prices, bp for rates) over 1 and 3 years, the beta, a rolling correlation and whether one tends to move first. Correlation is not causation, and it changes over time.

Shopify (SHOP) against…

Series	1M	3M	1Y ↓	n 1Y	3Y	3M − 3Y	Beta 1Y
S&P 500 spx	0.42	0.27	0.41	238	0.55	−0.28	1.87	scatter
Nasdaq 100 ndx	0.60	0.17	0.34	238	0.52	−0.35	1.02	scatter
Bitcoin btc	0.54	0.23	0.28	239	0.21	+0.02	0.38	scatter
UST 10YR ust10y	−0.43	−0.36	−0.21	238	−0.07	−0.30	−0.19	scatter
Arista (ANET) ANET	0.15	−0.07	0.21	250	0.40	−0.47 ⇄	0.23	scatter
UST 2YR ust2y	−0.35	−0.33	−0.21	238	−0.05	−0.28	−0.16	scatter
Brent brent	−0.41	−0.44	−0.18	238	−0.09	−0.35	−0.19	scatter
Copper copper	0.41	0.12	0.15	238	0.11	+0.02	0.31	scatter
Dell (DELL) DELL	0.03	−0.04	0.13	250	0.21	−0.26 ⇄	0.10	scatter
Digital Realty (DLR) DLR	0.11	0.02	0.12	250	0.25	−0.23	0.26	scatter
Gold gold	−0.01	0.29	0.12	238	−0.01	+0.30 ⇄	0.25	scatter
Constellation (CEG) CEG	−0.03	−0.18	0.11	250	0.22	−0.40 ⇄	0.14	scatter
CoreWeave (CRWV) CRWV	0.03	−0.17	0.11	250	0.21	−0.38 ⇄	0.07	scatter
PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) sox	0.52	−0.07	0.10	238	0.32	−0.39 ⇄	0.13	scatter
DXY dxy	0.04	0.04	−0.07	238	−0.05	+0.09 ⇄	−0.81	scatter
JCI (IHSG) jci	−0.63	−0.17	−0.04	220	−0.04	−0.13	−0.09	scatter
Ciena (CIEN) CIEN	−0.11	−0.14	0.02	250	0.22	−0.36 ⇄	0.02	scatter
INDOGB 10YR id10y	−0.02	−0.15	−0.02	213	−0.04	−0.11	−0.01	scatter
Coherent (COHR) COHR	−0.31	−0.18	−0.02	250	0.30	−0.48 ⇄	−0.01	scatter
Eaton (ETN) ETN	0.08	−0.15	0.01	250	0.25	−0.41 ⇄	0.02	scatter
LQ45 lq45	−0.59	−0.16	−0.01	220	−0.02	−0.15	−0.02	scatter
USD/IDR usdidr	0.18	0.14	−0.01	238	−0.07	+0.21 ⇄	−0.05	scatter
Newcastle coal coal	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter

Compared with the headline cross-asset series and the series in the same catalog category and country. Changes are matched on common dates. Beta = change in Shopify (SHOP) per unit change in the other series (least squares, 1 year). Amber: fewer than 20 common changes (hover a value for its n). Stability: the 3-month correlation minus the 3-year one; ⇄ marks opposite signs. A change in correlation describes the past; it does not say the relationship has broken or will return. Data ↓

Shopify (SHOP) · S&P 500

20 60 120 252

Rolling correlation of daily changes over the last 60 common readings, last 3 years.

Who moves first? (1 year)

Lag (readings)	-10	-9	-8	-7	-6	-5	-4	-3	-2	-1	+0	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5	+6	+7	+8	+9	+10
correlation	0.11	−0.11	0.04	−0.07	−0.04	0.12	−0.01	−0.12	0.03	0.10	0.41	−0.09	−0.03	0.02	0.01	0.08	−0.01	−0.11	−0.10	−0.03	0.08

Lag +k: today's change in Shopify (SHOP) against the change in S&P 500 k readings later (positive = the first one leads). A peak away from 0 is a description of the past year only.