Relationship Lab

How a series has moved with others: the correlation of daily changes (% for prices, bp for rates) over 1 and 3 years, the beta, a rolling correlation and whether one tends to move first. Correlation is not causation, and it changes over time.

MSFT capex (quarterly) against…

Series	1M	3M	1Y ↓	n 1Y	3Y	3M − 3Y	Beta 1Y
Nasdaq 100 ndx	–	–	−1.00	3	−0.76	–	−2.22	scatter
PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) sox	–	–	−0.99	3	−0.75	–	−1.24	scatter
S&P 500 spx	–	–	−0.98	3	−0.82	–	−2.55	scatter
Copper copper	–	–	−0.95	3	−0.67	–	−2.23	scatter
Gold gold	–	–	−0.94	3	−0.86	–	−2.33	scatter
Brent brent	–	–	−0.91	3	−0.64	–	−1.24	scatter
DXY dxy	–	–	0.78	3	0.72	–	10.58	scatter
UST 10YR ust10y	–	–	0.70	3	0.67	–	0.57	scatter
UST 2YR ust2y	–	–	0.62	3	0.69	–	0.82	scatter
USD/IDR usdidr	–	–	−0.60	3	−0.16	–	−6.39	scatter
Bitcoin btc	–	–	−0.59	3	−0.56	–	−1.11	scatter
Hyperscaler capex (5 cos, quarterly) capex_total	–	–	0.51	4	0.60	–	0.20	scatter
INDOGB 10YR id10y	–	–	−0.48	4	−0.36	–	−0.66	scatter
META capex (quarterly) capex_META	–	–	0.30	4	0.33	–	0.22	scatter
GOOGL capex (quarterly) capex_GOOGL	–	–	−0.17	4	0.25	–	−0.20	scatter
CRWV capex (quarterly) capex_CRWV	–	–	−0.14	4	0.05	–	−0.28	scatter
AMZN capex (quarterly) capex_AMZN	–	–	0.10	4	0.28	–	0.14	scatter
JCI (IHSG) jci	–	–	–	2	−0.96	–	–	scatter
LQ45 lq45	–	–	–	2	−1.00	–	–	scatter
Newcastle coal coal	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter
NVDA capex (quarterly) capex_NVDA	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter
Nvidia revenue (quarterly) nvda_rev	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter
ORCL capex (quarterly) capex_ORCL	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter

Compared with the headline cross-asset series and the series in the same catalog category and country. Changes are matched on common dates. Beta = change in MSFT capex (quarterly) per unit change in the other series (least squares, 1 year). Amber: fewer than 20 common changes (hover a value for its n). Stability: the 3-month correlation minus the 3-year one; ⇄ marks opposite signs. A change in correlation describes the past; it does not say the relationship has broken or will return. Data ↓

MSFT capex (quarterly) · Nasdaq 100

20 60 120 252

Not enough common dates for a rolling correlation.

Rolling correlation of daily changes over the last 60 common readings, last 3 years.

Who moves first? (1 year)

Lag (readings)	-10	-9	-8	-7	-6	-5	-4	-3	-2	-1	+0	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5	+6	+7	+8	+9	+10
correlation	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	−1.00	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Lag +k: today's change in MSFT capex (quarterly) against the change in Nasdaq 100 k readings later (positive = the first one leads). A peak away from 0 is a description of the past year only.