Relationship Lab

How a series has moved with others: the correlation of daily changes (% for prices, bp for rates) over 1 and 3 years, the beta, a rolling correlation and whether one tends to move first. Correlation is not causation, and it changes over time.

Semis: foundry & equipment (equal-weight basket) against…

Series	1M	3M	1Y ↓	n 1Y	3Y	3M − 3Y	Beta 1Y
PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) sox	0.74	0.85	0.84	240	0.88	−0.03	0.76	scatter
Semis: memory (equal-weight basket) th_memory	0.79	0.84	0.73	256	0.73	+0.12	0.42	scatter
Nasdaq 100 ndx	0.65	0.71	0.73	240	0.79	−0.08	1.51	scatter
Semis: AI compute & design (equal-weight basket) th_compute	0.64	0.77	0.73	250	0.80	−0.04	0.62	scatter
AI infrastructure: network, servers, power (equal-weight basket) th_infra	0.69	0.78	0.71	250	0.71	+0.06	0.67	scatter
S&P 500 spx	0.59	0.52	0.60	240	0.69	−0.17	1.92	scatter
Copper copper	0.24	0.46	0.44	240	0.37	+0.10	0.65	scatter
Hyperscalers (equal-weight basket) th_hyper	0.19	0.25	0.34	250	0.53	−0.28	0.53	scatter
China tech (equal-weight basket) th_china	0.39	0.02	0.33	255	0.29	−0.26	0.48	scatter
Gold gold	0.35	0.23	0.30	240	0.20	+0.03	0.42	scatter
Brent brent	−0.62	−0.12	−0.24	240	−0.02	−0.10	−0.18	scatter
Bitcoin btc	0.87	0.12	0.23	248	0.15	−0.03	0.22	scatter
DXY dxy	−0.43	−0.10	−0.21	240	−0.13	+0.03	−1.69	scatter
Consumer tech & platforms (equal-weight basket) th_consumer	−0.37	−0.10	0.17	250	0.44	−0.54 ⇄	0.31	scatter
JCI (IHSG) jci	−0.10	0.20	0.17	227	0.20	−0.01	0.28	scatter
UST 10YR ust10y	−0.27	0.00	−0.15	239	0.00	0.00	−0.09	scatter
Cloud & software (equal-weight basket) th_software	−0.27	−0.30	−0.11	250	0.28	−0.58 ⇄	−0.11	scatter
LQ45 lq45	−0.19	0.10	0.11	227	0.17	−0.07	0.17	scatter
UST 2YR ust2y	−0.18	−0.01	−0.08	239	0.07	−0.08 ⇄	−0.05	scatter
Cybersecurity (equal-weight basket) th_cyber	−0.39	−0.03	0.05	250	0.37	−0.40 ⇄	0.04	scatter
INDOGB 10YR id10y	−0.09	0.12	−0.02	218	−0.06	+0.18 ⇄	−0.01	scatter
USD/IDR usdidr	−0.24	0.00	0.02	247	−0.16	+0.16	0.08	scatter
Newcastle coal coal	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter

Compared with the headline cross-asset series and the series in the same catalog category and country. Changes are matched on common dates. Beta = change in Semis: foundry & equipment (equal-weight basket) per unit change in the other series (least squares, 1 year). Amber: fewer than 20 common changes (hover a value for its n). Stability: the 3-month correlation minus the 3-year one; ⇄ marks opposite signs. A change in correlation describes the past; it does not say the relationship has broken or will return. Data ↓

Semis: foundry & equipment (equal-weight basket) · PHLX Semiconductor (SOX)

20 60 120 252

Rolling correlation of daily changes over the last 60 common readings, last 3 years.

Who moves first? (1 year)

Lag (readings)	-10	-9	-8	-7	-6	-5	-4	-3	-2	-1	+0	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5	+6	+7	+8	+9	+10
correlation	0.00	0.10	−0.02	0.13	−0.02	−0.11	−0.05	0.06	−0.16	0.16	0.84	−0.11	−0.05	0.06	−0.12	−0.11	−0.01	0.08	0.03	−0.01	0.02

Lag +k: today's change in Semis: foundry & equipment (equal-weight basket) against the change in PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) k readings later (positive = the first one leads). A peak away from 0 is a description of the past year only.