Relationship Lab

How a series has moved with others: the correlation of daily changes (% for prices, bp for rates) over 1 and 3 years, the beta, a rolling correlation and whether one tends to move first. Correlation is not causation, and it changes over time.

Hyperscalers (equal-weight basket) against…

Series	1M	3M	1Y ↓	n 1Y	3Y	3M − 3Y	Beta 1Y
S&P 500 spx	0.92	0.72	0.71	240	0.77	−0.05	1.47	scatter
Nasdaq 100 ndx	0.92	0.61	0.66	240	0.78	−0.17	0.88	scatter
Consumer tech & platforms (equal-weight basket) th_consumer	0.49	0.38	0.49	250	0.57	−0.19	0.56	scatter
Cloud & software (equal-weight basket) th_software	0.54	0.31	0.48	250	0.59	−0.28	0.30	scatter
Semis: AI compute & design (equal-weight basket) th_compute	0.58	0.31	0.43	250	0.60	−0.29	0.24	scatter
AI infrastructure: network, servers, power (equal-weight basket) th_infra	0.41	0.28	0.42	250	0.60	−0.32	0.26	scatter
Cybersecurity (equal-weight basket) th_cyber	0.23	0.22	0.40	250	0.50	−0.27	0.24	scatter
PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) sox	0.77	0.26	0.36	240	0.56	−0.30	0.21	scatter
Bitcoin btc	0.61	0.21	0.36	239	0.22	−0.01	0.22	scatter
Semis: foundry & equipment (equal-weight basket) th_foundry	0.19	0.25	0.34	250	0.53	−0.28	0.22	scatter
Copper copper	0.69	0.38	0.33	240	0.23	+0.14	0.32	scatter
DXY dxy	−0.22	−0.26	−0.26	240	−0.13	−0.13	−1.33	scatter
Semis: memory (equal-weight basket) th_memory	0.10	0.19	0.25	250	0.34	−0.15	0.09	scatter
Brent brent	−0.56	−0.46	−0.24	240	−0.09	−0.37	−0.12	scatter
China tech (equal-weight basket) th_china	0.26	0.19	0.23	250	0.20	−0.01	0.21	scatter
UST 10YR ust10y	−0.75	−0.31	−0.23	238	−0.04	−0.28	−0.09	scatter
Gold gold	0.29	0.19	0.19	240	0.09	+0.09	0.17	scatter
UST 2YR ust2y	−0.55	−0.22	−0.19	238	0.02	−0.24 ⇄	−0.07	scatter
LQ45 lq45	0.09	0.14	0.13	221	0.16	−0.02	0.13	scatter
JCI (IHSG) jci	0.06	0.07	0.12	221	0.16	−0.08	0.13	scatter
INDOGB 10YR id10y	−0.08	0.05	−0.07	213	−0.11	+0.16 ⇄	−0.01	scatter
USD/IDR usdidr	−0.16	−0.02	−0.01	239	−0.15	+0.13	−0.02	scatter
Newcastle coal coal	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter

Compared with the headline cross-asset series and the series in the same catalog category and country. Changes are matched on common dates. Beta = change in Hyperscalers (equal-weight basket) per unit change in the other series (least squares, 1 year). Amber: fewer than 20 common changes (hover a value for its n). Stability: the 3-month correlation minus the 3-year one; ⇄ marks opposite signs. A change in correlation describes the past; it does not say the relationship has broken or will return. Data ↓

Hyperscalers (equal-weight basket) · S&P 500

20 60 120 252

Rolling correlation of daily changes over the last 60 common readings, last 3 years.

Who moves first? (1 year)

Lag (readings)	-10	-9	-8	-7	-6	-5	-4	-3	-2	-1	+0	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5	+6	+7	+8	+9	+10
correlation	0.13	−0.04	−0.03	−0.09	−0.07	0.13	0.02	−0.04	−0.03	0.12	0.71	0.06	0.00	0.09	0.02	0.00	−0.05	−0.12	−0.10	0.00	0.11

Lag +k: today's change in Hyperscalers (equal-weight basket) against the change in S&P 500 k readings later (positive = the first one leads). A peak away from 0 is a description of the past year only.