Relationship Lab

How a series has moved with others: the correlation of daily changes (% for prices, bp for rates) over 1 and 3 years, the beta, a rolling correlation and whether one tends to move first. Correlation is not causation, and it changes over time.

Semis: memory (equal-weight basket) against…

Series	1M	3M	1Y ↓	n 1Y	3Y	3M − 3Y	Beta 1Y
Semis: foundry & equipment (equal-weight basket) th_foundry	0.79	0.84	0.73	256	0.73	+0.12	1.26	scatter
PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) sox	0.77	0.70	0.69	238	0.71	0.00	1.08	scatter
AI infrastructure: network, servers, power (equal-weight basket) th_infra	0.51	0.67	0.60	250	0.56	+0.11	0.96	scatter
Semis: AI compute & design (equal-weight basket) th_compute	0.61	0.69	0.58	250	0.61	+0.08	0.85	scatter
Nasdaq 100 ndx	0.57	0.52	0.57	238	0.58	−0.05	2.02	scatter
S&P 500 spx	0.47	0.29	0.41	238	0.48	−0.19	2.27	scatter
Copper copper	0.63	0.35	0.31	238	0.31	+0.04	0.79	scatter
Hyperscalers (equal-weight basket) th_hyper	0.10	0.19	0.25	250	0.34	−0.15	0.65	scatter
Gold gold	0.74	0.17	0.24	238	0.22	−0.05	0.58	scatter
China tech (equal-weight basket) th_china	0.27	−0.05	0.22	254	0.21	−0.25 ⇄	0.54	scatter
JCI (IHSG) jci	0.18	0.37	0.19	225	0.20	+0.18	0.53	scatter
Brent brent	−0.48	0.04	−0.17	238	−0.01	+0.05 ⇄	−0.22	scatter
Bitcoin btc	0.61	0.09	0.15	245	0.10	−0.01	0.24	scatter
LQ45 lq45	0.04	0.26	0.13	225	0.15	+0.10	0.35	scatter
INDOGB 10YR id10y	−0.20	−0.02	−0.12	217	−0.13	+0.10	−0.07	scatter
Cloud & software (equal-weight basket) th_software	−0.21	−0.29	−0.12	250	0.09	−0.38 ⇄	−0.19	scatter
DXY dxy	−0.26	−0.06	−0.10	238	−0.08	+0.02	−1.37	scatter
UST 10YR ust10y	−0.33	0.09	−0.06	239	0.00	+0.09 ⇄	−0.07	scatter
UST 2YR ust2y	−0.28	0.04	−0.05	239	0.06	−0.02	−0.04	scatter
USD/IDR usdidr	−0.41	−0.09	0.03	244	−0.12	+0.03	0.27	scatter
Cybersecurity (equal-weight basket) th_cyber	−0.30	−0.03	0.03	250	0.18	−0.21 ⇄	0.05	scatter
Consumer tech & platforms (equal-weight basket) th_consumer	−0.37	−0.18	−0.01	250	0.22	−0.40 ⇄	−0.02	scatter
Newcastle coal coal	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter

Compared with the headline cross-asset series and the series in the same catalog category and country. Changes are matched on common dates. Beta = change in Semis: memory (equal-weight basket) per unit change in the other series (least squares, 1 year). Amber: fewer than 20 common changes (hover a value for its n). Stability: the 3-month correlation minus the 3-year one; ⇄ marks opposite signs. A change in correlation describes the past; it does not say the relationship has broken or will return. Data ↓

Semis: memory (equal-weight basket) · Semis: foundry & equipment (equal-weight basket)

20 60 120 252

Rolling correlation of daily changes over the last 60 common readings, last 3 years.

Who moves first? (1 year)

Lag (readings)	-10	-9	-8	-7	-6	-5	-4	-3	-2	-1	+0	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5	+6	+7	+8	+9	+10
correlation	0.05	0.02	0.05	0.14	−0.09	−0.09	−0.06	0.10	−0.13	0.06	0.73	0.05	−0.09	0.13	−0.13	−0.09	−0.10	0.11	0.08	−0.03	−0.06

Lag +k: today's change in Semis: memory (equal-weight basket) against the change in Semis: foundry & equipment (equal-weight basket) k readings later (positive = the first one leads). A peak away from 0 is a description of the past year only.