Weekly Market Overview and angles
Drafts to start from. Nothing here is published automatically.
Weekly Market Overview draft (28 September 2026)
Draft by page
| Page | Section | Draft text |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global macro | Harga minyak melonjak: Brent +0,43% ke USD 104,32/barel. Ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga The Fed menguat: UST 2YR +12 bps ke 4,86% (sempat tertinggi sejak Mei 2024); selisih UST 2YR-FFR +1,04 pp. Yield obligasi global naik: UST 10YR +18 bps ke 5,18% (tembus 5,00%); Bund 10YR +10 bps ke 3,62% (tertinggi 10 tahun); JGB 10YR +10 bps ke 3,09% (tembus 3,00%). |
| 2 | Global equity (DM & EM) | Pasar saham AS menguat: S&P 500 +1,21% ke 7.743,41; Meta +12,99%; Oracle -7,12%; Costco Wholesale EPS surprise +1,9%. Saham Korea memimpin: KOSPI +2,71% ke 7.080,92 (tembus 7.000); TWSE +1,79% ke 48.025; Samsung Electronics +9,39%. Asia outperform AS: AAXJ +1,93% vs S&P 500 +1,21%; mata uang Asia +0,16%. |
| 3 | Indonesia | IDR stabil: IDR +1,11% ke 17.560/USD. Yield SBN turun: FR 10YR -7 bps ke 7,08%; spread FR 10YR-UST 10YR -26 bps ke 1,90 pp (sempat terendah 10 tahun); Inflow Asing Masuk ke SBN Rp 140,7 Triliun (headline). IHSG melemah: IHSG -3,09% ke 6.242; asing Net Sell Rp129 Miliar (headline); TLKM -5,86%; BBRI -4,83%. |
Source: Cockpit WMO builder (rules on our data)
Data ↓Angles you might miss
Angles
| Type | Angle | Bahasa | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme | JGB 10YR at its highest in the available history (since 2016-09) | Yield JGB 10YR berada di level 3,12% per 29 September 2026, tertinggi dalam data yang tersedia sejak September 2016. | Last 3.12% on 2026-09-29; 10.0 years without a more extreme print. |
| Extreme | Bund 10YR at its highest in the available history (since 2016-09) | Yield Bund 10YR berada di level 3,64% per 28 September 2026, tertinggi dalam data yang tersedia sejak September 2016. | Last 3.64% on 2026-09-28; 10.0 years without a more extreme print. |
| Extreme | Gilt 10YR at its highest in the available history (since 2016-09) | Yield Gilt 10YR berada di level 5,40% per 28 September 2026, tertinggi dalam data yang tersedia sejak September 2016. | Last 5.40% on 2026-09-28; 10.0 years without a more extreme print. |
| Extreme | UST 10YR at its highest since 2007-06 | Yield UST 10YR berada di level 5,25% per 28 September 2026, tertinggi sejak Juni 2007. | Last 5.25% on 2026-09-28; 19.3 years without a more extreme print. |
| Extreme | UST 30YR at its highest since 2004-06 | Yield UST 30YR berada di level 5,57% per 28 September 2026, tertinggi sejak Juni 2004. | Last 5.57% on 2026-09-28; 22.3 years without a more extreme print. |
| Extreme | 10YR real yield (TIPS) at its highest since 2008-11 | Real yield UST 10YR berada di level 2,85% per 24 September 2026, tertinggi sejak November 2008. | Last 2.85% on 2026-09-24; 17.8 years without a more extreme print. |
| Unusual move | USD/IDR moved +2.28% this week: a 2.6-sigma week | USD/IDR bergerak +2,28% dalam sepekan per 28 September 2026, pergerakan mingguan terbesar ~2.6x standar deviasi 3 tahun terakhir. | Weekly change vs the 3-year distribution of weekly changes. |
| Streak | UST 10YR up 5 weeks in a row | UST 10YR naik selama 5 pekan berturut-turut per 28 September 2026. | Consecutive weekly closes in the same direction. |
| Positioning | UST 10YR futures, asset managers at the top of its 3Y range (94th pct) | Posisi UST 10YR futures, asset managers berada di persentil 94 dalam 3 tahun terakhir per 22 September 2026: posisi sangat ramai (crowded). | CFTC Commitments of Traders, net contracts. |
| Auction | UST 2-Year auction weak: bid-to-cover 2.63x vs 2.91x avg (last 6); indirect 57.8% vs 60.8% | Lelang UST 2YR pada 22 September 2026 mencatatkan bid-to-cover 2,63x (avg. 6 lelang terakhir: 2,91x), dengan porsi bank sentral & institusi asing 57,79% (avg. 60,76%). | TreasuryDirect auction results. |
| Curve | FR 10YR - UST 10YR spread compressed 28 bps in 1M to 1.95% | Selisih yield FR 10YR dengan UST 10YR menyempit 28 bps dalam sebulan ke 1,95%. | The premium for Indonesia duration risk. |
| Auction | UST 5-Year auction weak: bid-to-cover 2.21x vs 2.37x avg (last 6); indirect 54.3% vs 65.7% | Lelang UST 5YR pada 23 September 2026 mencatatkan bid-to-cover 2,21x (avg. 6 lelang terakhir: 2,37x), dengan porsi bank sentral & institusi asing 54,31% (avg. 65,68%). | TreasuryDirect auction results. |
| Sentiment | JCI (IHSG): capitulation: contrarian watch | Sentimen JCI (IHSG): capitulation: contrarian watch. | Sentiment board composite -1.42. |
| Extreme | UST 2YR at its highest since 2024-05 | Yield UST 2YR berada di level 4,92% per 28 September 2026, tertinggi sejak Mei 2024. | Last 4.92% on 2026-09-28; 2.3 years without a more extreme print. |
| Curve | UST curve: bear flattening over 1M (2YR +58 bps, 10YR +52 bps) | Kurva UST mengalami bear flattening dalam sebulan terakhir: UST 2YR +58 bps, UST 10YR +52 bps. | Regime from 1M changes of 2YR and 10YR. |
| Extreme | CSI 300 at its lowest since 2025-08 | CSI 300 berada di level 4.340,76 per 28 September 2026, terendah sejak Agustus 2025. | Last 4.340.76 on 2026-09-28; 1.1 years without a more extreme print. |
| BCA research | BCA BI policy (2026-09-24): The deep lying playmaker | 1 • Bank Indonesia (BI) kept the BI Rate unchanged at 5.75% at its Sept-26 meeting, marking the third consecutive meeting of policy rate stability. | 1 • Bank Indonesia (BI) kept the BI Rate unchanged at 5.75% at its Sept-26 meeting, marking the third consecutive meeting of policy rate stability. The decision was notable given that several major central banks, including the Fed, ECB, and BoJ, raised their policy rates in Sept-26. • The increase i |
Source: Cockpit angle finder (rules on our data)
Data ↓