IDEN

← Releases

US CPI 2026-08: inflation little changed

Official release Official

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-U all items · 2026-08: 3.4% y/y · previous 3.4%

Released: 11 Sep 2026 19:30 WIB (FRED release calendar) · first seen by this system: 24 Sep 2026 13:45 WIB · source ↗ · year-over-year computed in Python from the index

Versus expectations

3.35%3.40%3.45%Previous3.40%Actual3.40%

No consensus was captured before this release, so the change is read against the previous month: 0.0 pp.

Consensus is captured from the calendar on every pipeline run from now on, so future releases show a surprise.

Market reaction

MarketChangeSize vs usual daily moveCloses
UST 10YR+1 bp 0.2× 10 Sep → 11 Sep
DXY+0.03% 0.1× 10 Sep → 11 Sep
S&P 500+0.86% 1.1× 10 Sep → 11 Sep
Gold+0.04% 0.0× 10 Sep → 11 Sep
USD/IDR+0.24% 0.5× 11 Sep → 14 Sep
INDOGB 10YR+6 bp 0.8× 10 Sep → 13 Sep
JCI (IHSG)−0.10% 0.1× 11 Sep → 14 Sep

Close-to-close from daily data: US markets on the release day, Asian markets at the next close. Measured after the release; never used to classify the release itself.

The story around it

  • Friday's CPI inflation report is even more important than usual. Here's what to expect · 11 Sep · 1 source(s)
  • Corporate Goods Price Index (Aug.) · 11 Sep · 1 source(s)
  • Inflation persisted in August, potentially locking in a Fed interest rate hike · 11 Sep · 1 source(s)
  • Consumer outlook plunges in September as inflation outlook worsens · 11 Sep · 1 source(s)
  • Inflation is outpacing wage growth again, squeezing Americans’ paychecks · 12 Sep · 1 source(s)

House view and thesis impact

Long Indonesia government bonds · view Overweight DEMO · status needs review
  • US inflation: little changed → neutral (helps the thesis when cooling)
  • US 10-year yield: little changed → neutral (helps the thesis when falling, key factor)
  • Rupiah: little changed → neutral (helps the thesis when stronger, key factor)
  • Indonesia 10-year yield: little changed → neutral (helps the thesis when falling)
US inflation · suggested, waiting for review
US 10-year yield · suggested, waiting for review
Rupiah · suggested, waiting for review
Indonesia 10-year yield · suggested, waiting for review
Gold overweight · view Overweight DEMO · status needs review
  • US dollar: little changed → neutral (helps the thesis when weaker)
US dollar · suggested, waiting for review
US equities neutral · view Neutral DEMO · status needs review
  • US stock trend: little changed → neutral (helps the thesis when rising)
  • US inflation: little changed → neutral (helps the thesis when cooling)
  • US 10-year yield: little changed → neutral (helps the thesis when falling, key factor)
US stock trend · suggested, waiting for review
US inflation · suggested, waiting for review
US 10-year yield · suggested, waiting for review

Suggestions come from published data rules. Accepting or rejecting them is the analyst's call; views change only when an analyst records a new one.

Product implications (archetypes)

IDR government bond fund (long duration) limited impact
IDR money market fund limited impact
USD global equity fund limited impact
Indonesia equity fund limited impact
Gold-linked product limited impact

Generic product types, not BCA products and not recommendations. Rule: every factor moved the helpful way → potential beneficiary; every one the other way → potential headwind; both → requires review.

Draft wording DRAFT: NEEDS APPROVAL

US CPI 2026-08: 3.4% y/y versus 3.4% the month before (no consensus captured). Inflation read as little changed (basis: previous month). Close-to-close reaction: UST 10Y +1 bp, DXY +0.03%, USD/IDR +0.24%, INDOGB 10Y +6 bp. Thesis status since last review: Long Indonesia government bonds: needs review; Gold overweight: needs review; US equities neutral: needs review. Product archetypes: no material impact.

Written from fixed templates and the numbers above; no AI model and no BCA content leaves this machine. Client text must be approved before use.