Event Study Lab

What a series did after each past event of one kind: a calendar event, or a condition you define on any series. Every event is listed with its outcome; the summary carries its sample size. A description of the past, not a forecast.

Fed and BI decisionsCPI releases (US, ID)US payrollsGDP releases (US, ID) outcome for Run

UST 10YR · 47 events

Data ↓

Horizon	n	Mean	Median	Up	Min	Max	Each outcome
T+1	47	0 bp	+1 bp	51%	−32 bp	+47 bp
T+5	46	+2 bp	+4 bp	57%	−70 bp	+62 bp
T+20	45	+11 bp	+11 bp	67%	−75 bp	+109 bp

"Up" = share of outcomes above zero. n in amber: fewer than 5 observations, read with care. Past outcomes describe the past; they are not a forecast.

Every event

Date	Event	Surprise	T+1	T+5	T+20
2026-10-14	US CPI	–	−2 bp	–	–
2026-10-01	ID CPI	–	−5 bp	−1 bp	–
2026-09-11	US CPI	–	+1 bp	−1 bp	+27 bp
2026-08-12	US CPI	–	−2 bp	+1 bp	+13 bp
2026-07-14	US CPI	–	−4 bp	−2 bp	+10 bp
2026-06-10	US CPI	–	+2 bp	−10 bp	+1 bp
2026-05-12	US CPI	–	+4 bp	+19 bp	+11 bp
2026-04-10	US CPI	–	+2 bp	+3 bp	+12 bp
2026-03-11	US CPI	–	+6 bp	+5 bp	+18 bp
2026-02-13	US CPI	–	−5 bp	−1 bp	+19 bp
2026-01-13	US CPI	–	−1 bp	+11 bp	−3 bp
2025-12-18	US CPI	–	−4 bp	−1 bp	+8 bp
2025-10-24	US CPI	–	+1 bp	+10 bp	+5 bp
2025-09-11	US CPI	–	−3 bp	+2 bp	+9 bp
2025-08-12	US CPI	–	+6 bp	−3 bp	−16 bp
2025-07-15	US CPI	–	+1 bp	−10 bp	−37 bp
2025-06-11	US CPI	–	−10 bp	−8 bp	−41 bp
2025-05-13	US CPI	–	+6 bp	+4 bp	−14 bp
2025-04-10	US CPI	–	+47 bp	+36 bp	+25 bp
2025-03-12	US CPI	–	−1 bp	+16 bp	+8 bp
2025-02-12	US CPI	–	−2 bp	−18 bp	−20 bp
2025-01-15	US CPI	–	−16 bp	−30 bp	−36 bp
2024-12-11	US CPI	–	+25 bp	+62 bp	+14 bp
2024-11-13	US CPI	–	+13 bp	+10 bp	−3 bp
2024-10-10	US CPI	–	+10 bp	+32 bp	+44 bp
2024-09-11	US CPI	–	−6 bp	+36 bp	+91 bp
2024-08-14	US CPI	–	−5 bp	−28 bp	+68 bp
2024-07-11	US CPI	–	−10 bp	−34 bp	+13 bp
2024-06-12	US CPI	–	−23 bp	−25 bp	−18 bp
2024-05-15	US CPI	–	−8 bp	−30 bp	−75 bp
2024-04-10	US CPI	–	+11 bp	+11 bp	−58 bp
2024-03-12	US CPI	–	+22 bp	+41 bp	+11 bp
2024-02-13	US CPI	–	+13 bp	+14 bp	+19 bp
2024-02-09	US CPI	–	+14 bp	+6 bp	+22 bp
2024-01-11	US CPI	–	−9 bp	+12 bp	+41 bp
2023-12-12	US CPI	–	−32 bp	−27 bp	+44 bp
2023-11-14	US CPI	–	−17 bp	−70 bp	−41 bp
2023-10-12	US CPI	–	−15 bp	−17 bp	−52 bp
2023-09-13	US CPI	–	+7 bp	+37 bp	−11 bp
2023-08-10	US CPI	–	+11 bp	+21 bp	−15 bp
2023-07-12	US CPI	–	−23 bp	+10 bp	+41 bp
2023-06-13	US CPI	–	+2 bp	+8 bp	+109 bp
2023-05-10	US CPI	–	+2 bp	+31 bp	+100 bp
2023-04-12	US CPI	–	+13 bp	+7 bp	+86 bp
2023-03-14	US CPI	–	−31 bp	−18 bp	+26 bp
2023-02-14	US CPI	–	+8 bp	−35 bp	+7 bp
2023-02-10	US CPI	–	+21 bp	+17 bp	+21 bp

Surprise = actual − consensus, only where the Research Desk recorded both (US CPI). Missing consensus or actual figures are never filled in.

Save analysis Saved analyses rerun on the latest data from Charts › Analysis.

Method

• Calendar events: recorded policy decisions and CPI, jobs and GDP releases (US and Indonesia). Base = the outcome series' last reading before the event day; T+1 = the first reading on or after it; T+h = h readings later.
• Defined by data: the rule is checked at each reading of the trigger series; z = the daily change against the previous 252 daily changes (at least 60). Base = the outcome series' reading on or before the event date. After an event, the next readings you set are skipped so one episode counts once.
• Changes: % for prices, bp for rates, units otherwise. Daily history starts in 2025 for most series (weekly before), so T+h counts readings, not days.