Relationship Lab

How a series has moved with others: the correlation of daily changes (% for prices, bp for rates) over 1 and 3 years, the beta, a rolling correlation and whether one tends to move first. Correlation is not causation, and it changes over time.

Cybersecurity (equal-weight basket) against…

Series	1M	3M	1Y ↓	n 1Y	3Y	3M − 3Y	Beta 1Y
Cloud & software (equal-weight basket) th_software	0.72	0.64	0.75	250	0.79	−0.15	0.79	scatter
Hyperscalers (equal-weight basket) th_hyper	0.23	0.22	0.40	250	0.50	−0.27	0.66	scatter
Nasdaq 100 ndx	0.15	0.26	0.32	240	0.55	−0.29	0.70	scatter
S&P 500 spx	0.03	0.23	0.31	240	0.54	−0.31	1.06	scatter
Bitcoin btc	0.02	0.09	0.26	239	0.20	−0.11	0.26	scatter
Consumer tech & platforms (equal-weight basket) th_consumer	0.25	0.25	0.26	250	0.40	−0.14	0.49	scatter
Semis: AI compute & design (equal-weight basket) th_compute	−0.16	0.07	0.18	250	0.44	−0.37	0.16	scatter
AI infrastructure: network, servers, power (equal-weight basket) th_infra	−0.47	−0.10	0.10	250	0.39	−0.49 ⇄	0.10	scatter
PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) sox	−0.02	−0.02	0.09	240	0.39	−0.41 ⇄	0.08	scatter
China tech (equal-weight basket) th_china	0.17	0.07	0.08	250	0.14	−0.07	0.12	scatter
UST 2YR ust2y	0.23	−0.16	−0.05	238	0.01	−0.17 ⇄	−0.03	scatter
UST 10YR ust10y	0.02	−0.14	−0.05	238	−0.01	−0.13	−0.03	scatter
Semis: foundry & equipment (equal-weight basket) th_foundry	−0.39	−0.03	0.05	250	0.37	−0.40 ⇄	0.05	scatter
LQ45 lq45	0.12	0.14	0.04	221	0.08	+0.06	0.06	scatter
Copper copper	0.00	−0.05	0.03	240	0.15	−0.20 ⇄	0.05	scatter
Semis: memory (equal-weight basket) th_memory	−0.30	−0.03	0.03	250	0.18	−0.21 ⇄	0.02	scatter
Brent brent	0.20	−0.08	0.03	240	0.09	−0.17 ⇄	0.02	scatter
INDOGB 10YR id10y	−0.40	0.02	−0.03	213	−0.04	+0.06 ⇄	−0.01	scatter
Gold gold	−0.57	−0.05	−0.02	240	0.01	−0.07 ⇄	−0.03	scatter
USD/IDR usdidr	0.53	0.27	0.01	239	−0.09	+0.36 ⇄	0.08	scatter
JCI (IHSG) jci	0.14	0.04	0.00	221	0.05	−0.02	0.01	scatter
DXY dxy	0.51	0.07	0.00	240	−0.09	+0.16 ⇄	0.02	scatter
Newcastle coal coal	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter

Compared with the headline cross-asset series and the series in the same catalog category and country. Changes are matched on common dates. Beta = change in Cybersecurity (equal-weight basket) per unit change in the other series (least squares, 1 year). Amber: fewer than 20 common changes (hover a value for its n). Stability: the 3-month correlation minus the 3-year one; ⇄ marks opposite signs. A change in correlation describes the past; it does not say the relationship has broken or will return. Data ↓

Cybersecurity (equal-weight basket) · Cloud & software (equal-weight basket)

20 60 120 252

Rolling correlation of daily changes over the last 252 common readings, last 3 years.

Who moves first? (1 year)

Lag (readings)	-10	-9	-8	-7	-6	-5	-4	-3	-2	-1	+0	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5	+6	+7	+8	+9	+10
correlation	0.13	−0.01	−0.12	−0.08	−0.09	0.02	−0.05	0.01	−0.01	0.11	0.75	0.00	−0.08	−0.08	−0.04	0.03	−0.08	−0.01	−0.05	0.10	0.05

Lag +k: today's change in Cybersecurity (equal-weight basket) against the change in Cloud & software (equal-weight basket) k readings later (positive = the first one leads). A peak away from 0 is a description of the past year only.