Relationship Lab

How a series has moved with others: the correlation of daily changes (% for prices, bp for rates) over 1 and 3 years, the beta, a rolling correlation and whether one tends to move first. Correlation is not causation, and it changes over time.

Cloud & software (equal-weight basket) against…

Series	1M	3M	1Y ↓	n 1Y	3Y	3M − 3Y	Beta 1Y
Cybersecurity (equal-weight basket) th_cyber	0.72	0.64	0.75	250	0.79	−0.15	0.72	scatter
Hyperscalers (equal-weight basket) th_hyper	0.54	0.31	0.48	250	0.59	−0.28	0.76	scatter
Consumer tech & platforms (equal-weight basket) th_consumer	0.61	0.49	0.37	250	0.53	−0.04	0.68	scatter
S&P 500 spx	0.66	0.35	0.31	238	0.59	−0.23	1.02	scatter
Bitcoin btc	0.36	0.22	0.28	239	0.20	+0.02	0.27	scatter
Nasdaq 100 ndx	0.72	0.24	0.25	238	0.56	−0.32	0.53	scatter
Semis: memory (equal-weight basket) th_memory	−0.21	−0.29	−0.12	250	0.09	−0.38 ⇄	−0.07	scatter
Semis: foundry & equipment (equal-weight basket) th_foundry	−0.27	−0.30	−0.11	250	0.28	−0.58 ⇄	−0.12	scatter
China tech (equal-weight basket) th_china	0.01	0.25	0.10	250	0.14	+0.11	0.15	scatter
UST 2YR ust2y	−0.38	−0.37	−0.10	238	0.01	−0.38 ⇄	−0.06	scatter
DXY dxy	0.05	−0.14	−0.09	238	−0.02	−0.12	−0.70	scatter
UST 10YR ust10y	−0.43	−0.35	−0.08	238	−0.03	−0.32	−0.05	scatter
PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) sox	0.56	−0.18	−0.08	238	0.31	−0.49 ⇄	−0.07	scatter
INDOGB 10YR id10y	−0.56	−0.30	−0.07	213	−0.08	−0.22	−0.02	scatter
Semis: AI compute & design (equal-weight basket) th_compute	−0.01	−0.14	0.05	250	0.38	−0.52 ⇄	0.05	scatter
Brent brent	−0.20	−0.34	−0.05	238	0.00	−0.34 ⇄	−0.04	scatter
Copper copper	0.55	0.01	0.04	238	0.12	−0.11	0.06	scatter
LQ45 lq45	0.42	0.11	0.03	220	0.06	+0.05	0.05	scatter
USD/IDR usdidr	−0.36	0.05	−0.03	238	−0.12	+0.17 ⇄	−0.17	scatter
Gold gold	0.21	0.18	0.02	238	−0.01	+0.19 ⇄	0.04	scatter
AI infrastructure: network, servers, power (equal-weight basket) th_infra	−0.27	−0.32	−0.02	250	0.37	−0.70 ⇄	−0.02	scatter
JCI (IHSG) jci	0.33	0.00	0.00	220	0.05	−0.06 ⇄	−0.01	scatter
Newcastle coal coal	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter

Compared with the headline cross-asset series and the series in the same catalog category and country. Changes are matched on common dates. Beta = change in Cloud & software (equal-weight basket) per unit change in the other series (least squares, 1 year). Amber: fewer than 20 common changes (hover a value for its n). Stability: the 3-month correlation minus the 3-year one; ⇄ marks opposite signs. A change in correlation describes the past; it does not say the relationship has broken or will return. Data ↓

Cloud & software (equal-weight basket) · AI infrastructure: network, servers, power (equal-weight basket)

20 60 120 252

Rolling correlation of daily changes over the last 20 common readings, last 3 years.

Who moves first? (1 year)

Lag (readings)	-10	-9	-8	-7	-6	-5	-4	-3	-2	-1	+0	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5	+6	+7	+8	+9	+10
correlation	0.14	−0.07	−0.01	−0.08	0.01	0.09	0.09	−0.03	−0.01	0.07	−0.02	−0.03	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.08	−0.09	−0.16	−0.06	−0.11	0.06

Lag +k: today's change in Cloud & software (equal-weight basket) against the change in AI infrastructure: network, servers, power (equal-weight basket) k readings later (positive = the first one leads). A peak away from 0 is a description of the past year only.