Relationship Lab

How a series has moved with others: the correlation of daily changes (% for prices, bp for rates) over 1 and 3 years, the beta, a rolling correlation and whether one tends to move first. Correlation is not causation, and it changes over time.

Trade balance (USD mn) against…

Series	1M	3M	1Y ↓	n 1Y	3Y	3M − 3Y	Beta 1Y
LQ45 lq45	–	–	0.95	3	−0.14	–	17,447.14	scatter
JCI (IHSG) jci	–	–	0.83	3	−0.12	–	10,419.68	scatter
Copper copper	–	–	0.77	5	−0.35	–	6,808.32	scatter
UST 2YR ust2y	–	–	0.51	5	−0.41	–	1,932.38	scatter
PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) sox	–	–	0.50	5	0.29	–	1,685.56	scatter
S&P 500 spx	–	–	0.45	5	−0.12	–	10,863.55	scatter
USD/IDR usdidr	–	–	−0.42	5	0.48	–	−29,313.75	scatter
Nasdaq 100 ndx	–	–	0.40	5	0.00	–	4,194.11	scatter
DXY dxy	–	–	−0.20	5	0.23	–	−10,007.81	scatter
INDOGB 10YR id10y	–	–	−0.16	4	0.07	–	−284.11	scatter
UST 10YR ust10y	–	–	0.15	5	−0.45	–	608.00	scatter
Bitcoin btc	–	–	−0.09	6	0.00	–	−522.32	scatter
Brent brent	–	–	−0.06	5	0.18	–	−108.30	scatter
Gold gold	–	–	−0.05	5	0.15	–	−288.19	scatter
Newcastle coal coal	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter
United States Current account / GDP tvm_US_cag	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter
United States FX reserves tvm_US_fer	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter
United States Terms of trade tvm_US_tot	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter
United States Trade balance tvm_US_bot	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter
Balance of payments (quarterly) id_bop	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter
Current account / GDP (quarterly) id_ca	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter
External debt (ULN) id_uln	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter
FX reserves id_reserves	–	–	–	0	–	–	–	scatter

Compared with the headline cross-asset series and the series in the same catalog category and country. Changes are matched on common dates. Beta = change in Trade balance (USD mn) per unit change in the other series (least squares, 1 year). Amber: fewer than 20 common changes (hover a value for its n). Stability: the 3-month correlation minus the 3-year one; ⇄ marks opposite signs. A change in correlation describes the past; it does not say the relationship has broken or will return. Data ↓

Trade balance (USD mn) · LQ45

20 60 120 252

Not enough common dates for a rolling correlation.

Rolling correlation of daily changes over the last 252 common readings, last 3 years.

Who moves first? (1 year)

Lag (readings)	-10	-9	-8	-7	-6	-5	-4	-3	-2	-1	+0	+1	+2	+3	+4	+5	+6	+7	+8	+9	+10
correlation	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	0.95	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–

Lag +k: today's change in Trade balance (USD mn) against the change in LQ45 k readings later (positive = the first one leads). A peak away from 0 is a description of the past year only.