Chart posted by @Barchart · 2026-09-25
UST 30YR: +338 bp over five years, to 5.43%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS30; FRED DGS10 · As of 15 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by @Barchart, 2026-09-25
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Charlie Bilello · Week in Charts · 2026-09-21
The Fed Funds Rate was lifted to a new range of 3.75-4.00%, the first hike since 2023. And judging by the reaction from the bond market, the…
UST 2YR: +436 bp over five years, to 4.77%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS2; FRED DFEDTARU · As of 15 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by Charlie Bilello · Week in Charts, 2026-09-21
Charlie Bilello · Week in Charts · 2026-09-21
The market is now pricing in at least one more 0.25% rate hike by year end, which would bring the Fed Funds Rate up to 4.00-4.25%.
Fed funds upper bound: +375 bp over five years, to 4.00%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DFEDTARU; FRED DGS2 · As of 15 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by Charlie Bilello · Week in Charts, 2026-09-21
Charlie Bilello · Week in Charts · 2026-09-21
Since 1982, stocks have actually performed better following rate HIKES than rate CUTS.
Fed funds upper bound: +375 bp over five years, to 4.00%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DFEDTARU; FRED DGS2 · As of 15 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by Charlie Bilello · Week in Charts, 2026-09-21
Charlie Bilello · Week in Charts · 2026-09-21
Recently, that direction has been up. The 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5% last week, closing at its highest level since July 2007.
UST 10YR: +351 bp over five years, to 5.10%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS10 · As of 15 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by Charlie Bilello · Week in Charts, 2026-09-21
Charlie Bilello · Week in Charts · 2026-09-21
While it’s been a challenging year in the bond market thus far, long-term bond investors should take solace in the following chart. It illus…
UST 10YR: +351 bp over five years, to 5.10%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS10 · As of 15 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by Charlie Bilello · Week in Charts, 2026-09-21
Charlie Bilello · Week in Charts · 2026-09-21
Lastly, credit sensitive instruments have yet to show any sign of higher default risk due to the shift back to a tightening cycle. Credit sp…
US HY OAS: −80 bp over five years, to 3.23%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2; FRED BAMLC0A0CM · As of 15 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by Charlie Bilello · Week in Charts, 2026-09-21
Charlie Bilello · Week in Charts · 2026-09-21
The 30-year mortgage rate in the US of close to 7% is at its highest level since January 2025 and more than double the artificially low rate…
US 30Y mortgage rate: +415 bp over five years, to 7.03%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED MORTGAGE30US; Computed from FRED WALCL, WTREGEN, RRPONTSYD · As of 24 Sep 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by Charlie Bilello · Week in Charts, 2026-09-21
J.P. Morgan AM · 2026-07-02
Guide to the Markets p.34: Nominal and real U.S. 10-year Treasury yields
UST 10YR: +351 bp over five years, to 5.10%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS10 · As of 15 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by J.P. Morgan AM, 2026-07-02
J.P. Morgan AM · 2026-07-02
Guide to the Markets p.35: U.S. Treasury yield curve
UST 10YR: +351 bp over five years, to 5.10%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS10; FRED T10Y2Y · As of 15 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by J.P. Morgan AM, 2026-07-02
J.P. Morgan AM · 2026-07-02
Guide to the Markets p.38: Corporate credit spreads Credit rating and default rates in U.S. high yield
US HY OAS: −80 bp over five years, to 3.23%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 · As of 15 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by J.P. Morgan AM, 2026-07-02
J.P. Morgan AM · 2026-07-02
Guide to the Markets p.39: Muni tax-equivalent and Treasury yield curves State and local, federal and corporate debt
UST 10YR: +351 bp over five years, to 5.10%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS10; FRED T10Y2Y · As of 15 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by J.P. Morgan AM, 2026-07-02
J.P. Morgan AM · 2026-07-02
Guide to the Markets p.42: Expected change in policy rates
Fed funds upper bound: +375 bp over five years, to 4.00%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DFEDTARU; FRED DGS2 · As of 15 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by J.P. Morgan AM, 2026-07-02
J.P. Morgan AM · 2026-07-02
Guide to the Markets p.51: Historical and expected policy rates Government fixed investment
Fed funds upper bound: +375 bp over five years, to 4.00%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DFEDTARU; FRED DGS2 · As of 15 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by J.P. Morgan AM, 2026-07-02
J.P. Morgan AM · 2026-07-02
Guide to the Markets p.64: 60/40 annual return decomposition S&P 500 / U.S. 10-year Treasury correlation
UST 10YR: +351 bp over five years, to 5.10%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS10; Yahoo Finance ^GSPC · As of 16 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by J.P. Morgan AM, 2026-07-02
Chart posted by @HedgieMarkets · 2025-11-06
US 30Y mortgage rate: +415 bp over five years, to 7.03%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED MORTGAGE30US; Computed from FRED WALCL, WTREGEN, RRPONTSYD · As of 24 Sep 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by @HedgieMarkets, 2025-11-06
Chart posted by @HedgieMarkets · 2025-10-29
UST 10YR: +351 bp over five years, to 5.10%.
Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS10 · As of 15 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by @HedgieMarkets, 2025-10-29