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The US 10-year Treasury yield

UST 10YR: +118 bp over the past year, to 5.21%.

4.00%4.50%5.00%UST 10YR 5.21%Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26

It sets the price of money worldwide. Higher US yields tend to pressure growth stocks, emerging-market bonds and currencies like the rupiah.

Source: FRED DGS10 · As of 13 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
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Risk premium on US high-yield bonds

US HY OAS: +7 bp over the past year, to 3.25%.

2.75%3.00%3.25%3.50%US HY OAS 3.25%Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26

A rising premium means lenders are getting nervous about weaker companies, often an early warning for stocks.

Source: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 · As of 14 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
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UST 10YR decomposed

UST 10YR: +118 bp over the past year, to 5.21%.

2.00%4.00%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%10YR term premium… 0.96%UST 10YR 5.21%10YR real yield (… 2.88%10YR breakeven in… 2.34%Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26

Nominal = real + breakeven; term premium shows how much is compensation for risk.

Source: FRED DGS10; FRED DFII10; FRED T10YIE; FRED THREEFYTP10 · As of 13 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
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Curve slope vs Fed

2s10s slope: −16 bp over the past year, to 0.36%.

0.00%0.50%1.00%3.80%4.00%4.20%3M-10YR slope 0.93%Fed funds upper b… 4.00%2s10s slope 0.36%Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26

Bear-steepening with a hawkish Fed = term-premium story; bull-steepening = cuts priced.

Source: FRED T10Y2Y; FRED T10Y3M; FRED DFEDTARU · As of 28 Sep 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
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Credit spreads

US IG OAS: 0 bp over the past year, to 0.81%.

0.800%0.900%2.00%3.00%US HY OAS 3.25%US IG OAS 0.810%EM corporate OAS 1.40%Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26

Is the rates selloff leaking into credit risk yet?

Source: FRED BAMLC0A0CM; FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2; FRED BAMLEMCBPIOAS · As of 14 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
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INDOGB vs UST 10YR

INDOGB 10YR: +108 bp over the past year, to 7.20%.

4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%2.00%2.50%3.00%INDOGB 10YR 7.20%UST 10YR 5.21%FR 10YR - UST 10Y… 1.95%Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26

The spread is the premium for Indonesia risk; compression while UST rises = local demand.

Source: CNBC ID10Y-ID; FRED DGS10; Computed: CNBC ID10Y - FRED/CNBC UST 10YR · As of 13 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
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Indonesia risk dashboard

INDOGB 10YR: +114 bp over the past year, to 7.20%.

6.00%6.50%7.00%7.50%010,000USD/IDR 17,943INDOGB 10YR 7.20%Indonesia CDS 5Y 88Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26

Yield, credit (CDS) and currency together: which one is doing the adjusting?

Source: CNBC ID10Y-ID; worldgovernmentbonds.com; Yahoo Finance IDR=X · As of 15 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
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EM 10YR yields

INDOGB 10YR: +84 bp over the past year, to 7.20%.

2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%8.50%9.00%9.50%Mexico 10YR 9.54%INDOGB 10YR 7.20%South Africa 10YR 9.05%Korea 10YR 4.54%Thailand 10YR 2.36%Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26

Relative value of INDOGB against EM peers.

Source: CNBC ID10Y-ID; CNBC KR10Y-KR; CNBC TH10Y-TH; CNBC MX10Y-MX; CNBC ZA10Y-ZA · As of 28 Sep 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
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DM 10YR yields

UST 10YR: +118 bp over the past year, to 5.21%.

2.00%4.00%Gilt 10YR 5.40%UST 10YR 5.21%Bund 10YR 3.64%JGB 10YR 3.12%Oct 25Jan 26Apr 26Jul 26Oct 26

Global term-premium repricing: is the UST move US-specific?

Source: FRED DGS10; CNBC DE10Y-DE; CNBC GB10Y-GB; CNBC JP10Y-JP · As of 13 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
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SUN auction demand

SUN auction incoming bids: −10.62 over the past year, to 65.97.

40.060.080.01.502.002.50SUN auction incom… 66.0SUN auction bid-t… 1.94SUN auction award… 34.0Apr 26

Incoming bids vs awarded: demand for new supply at DJPPR's conventional auctions.

Source: DJPPR auction results · As of 1 Sep 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
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Chart posted by @KobeissiLetter · 2026-09-28

UST 10YR: +118 bp over the past year, to 5.21%.

Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS10; Yahoo Finance ^GSPC; Yahoo Finance ^NDX · As of 14 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by @KobeissiLetter, 2026-09-28
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Chart posted by @KobeissiLetter · 2026-09-28

UST 10YR: +118 bp over the past year, to 5.21%.

Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS10; Yahoo Finance GC=F; Yahoo Finance SI=F · As of 14 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by @KobeissiLetter, 2026-09-28
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Chart posted by @Barchart · 2026-09-28

UST 30YR: +94 bp over the past year, to 5.56%.

Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS30; FRED DGS10 · As of 13 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by @Barchart, 2026-09-28
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Chart posted by @Barchart · 2026-09-28

UST 2YR: +131 bp over the past year, to 4.79%.

Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS2; CNBC JP10Y-JP · As of 13 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by @Barchart, 2026-09-28
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Chart posted by @KobeissiLetter · 2026-09-28

UST 10YR: +118 bp over the past year, to 5.21%.

Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS10; Yahoo Finance ^GSPC · As of 14 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by @KobeissiLetter, 2026-09-28
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Chart posted by @KobeissiLetter · 2026-09-27

UST 30YR: +94 bp over the past year, to 5.56%.

Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS30; FRED DGS10; FRED DGS2 · As of 13 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by @KobeissiLetter, 2026-09-27
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Chart posted by @KobeissiLetter · 2026-09-27

UST 30YR: +94 bp over the past year, to 5.56%.

Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS30; FRED DGS10; FRED BAMLC0A0CM · As of 13 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by @KobeissiLetter, 2026-09-27
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Chart posted by @Barchart · 2026-09-26

UST 10YR: +118 bp over the past year, to 5.21%.

Recreated interpretationSource: FRED DGS10 · As of 13 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC · Inspired by @Barchart, 2026-09-26
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