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The US 10-year Treasury yield
UST 10YR: +118 bp over the past year, to 5.21%.
4.00% 4.50% 5.00% UST 10YR 5.21% Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
It sets the price of money worldwide. Higher US yields tend to pressure growth stocks, emerging-market bonds and currencies like the rupiah.
Source: FRED DGS10 · As of 13 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
Risk premium on US high-yield bonds
US HY OAS: +7 bp over the past year, to 3.25%.
2.75% 3.00% 3.25% 3.50% US HY OAS 3.25% Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
A rising premium means lenders are getting nervous about weaker companies, often an early warning for stocks.
Source: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 · As of 14 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
UST 10YR decomposed
UST 10YR: +118 bp over the past year, to 5.21%.
2.00% 4.00% 0.40% 0.60% 0.80% 1.00% 10YR term premium… 0.96% UST 10YR 5.21% 10YR real yield (… 2.88% 10YR breakeven in… 2.34% Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
Nominal = real + breakeven; term premium shows how much is compensation for risk.
Source: FRED DGS10; FRED DFII10; FRED T10YIE; FRED THREEFYTP10 · As of 13 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
Curve slope vs Fed
2s10s slope: −16 bp over the past year, to 0.36%.
0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 3.80% 4.00% 4.20% 3M-10YR slope 0.93% Fed funds upper b… 4.00% 2s10s slope 0.36% Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26
Bear-steepening with a hawkish Fed = term-premium story; bull-steepening = cuts priced.
Source: FRED T10Y2Y; FRED T10Y3M; FRED DFEDTARU · As of 28 Sep 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
Credit spreads
US IG OAS: 0 bp over the past year, to 0.81%.
0.800% 0.900% 2.00% 3.00% US HY OAS 3.25% US IG OAS 0.810% EM corporate OAS 1.40% Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
Is the rates selloff leaking into credit risk yet?
Source: FRED BAMLC0A0CM; FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2; FRED BAMLEMCBPIOAS · As of 14 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
INDOGB vs UST 10YR
INDOGB 10YR: +108 bp over the past year, to 7.20%.
4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% INDOGB 10YR 7.20% UST 10YR 5.21% FR 10YR - UST 10Y… 1.95% Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
The spread is the premium for Indonesia risk; compression while UST rises = local demand.
Source: CNBC ID10Y-ID; FRED DGS10; Computed: CNBC ID10Y - FRED/CNBC UST 10YR · As of 13 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
Indonesia risk dashboard
INDOGB 10YR: +114 bp over the past year, to 7.20%.
6.00% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 0 10,000 USD/IDR 17,943 INDOGB 10YR 7.20% Indonesia CDS 5Y 88 Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
Yield, credit (CDS) and currency together: which one is doing the adjusting?
Source: CNBC ID10Y-ID; worldgovernmentbonds.com; Yahoo Finance IDR=X · As of 15 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
EM 10YR yields
INDOGB 10YR: +84 bp over the past year, to 7.20%.
2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 8.50% 9.00% 9.50% Mexico 10YR 9.54% INDOGB 10YR 7.20% South Africa 10YR 9.05% Korea 10YR 4.54% Thailand 10YR 2.36% Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26
Relative value of INDOGB against EM peers.
Source: CNBC ID10Y-ID; CNBC KR10Y-KR; CNBC TH10Y-TH; CNBC MX10Y-MX; CNBC ZA10Y-ZA · As of 28 Sep 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
DM 10YR yields
UST 10YR: +118 bp over the past year, to 5.21%.
2.00% 4.00% Gilt 10YR 5.40% UST 10YR 5.21% Bund 10YR 3.64% JGB 10YR 3.12% Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
Global term-premium repricing: is the UST move US-specific?
Source: FRED DGS10; CNBC DE10Y-DE; CNBC GB10Y-GB; CNBC JP10Y-JP · As of 13 Oct 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
SUN auction demand
SUN auction incoming bids: −10.62 over the past year, to 65.97.
40.0 60.0 80.0 1.50 2.00 2.50 SUN auction incom… 66.0 SUN auction bid-t… 1.94 SUN auction award… 34.0 Apr 26
Incoming bids vs awarded: demand for new supply at DJPPR's conventional auctions.
Source: DJPPR auction results · As of 1 Sep 2026 · Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC
Chart posted by @KobeissiLetter · 2026-09-28
UST 10YR: +118 bp over the past year, to 5.21%.
4.00% 4.50% 5.00% UST 10YR 5.21% 10,000 20,000 30,000 Nasdaq 100 29,951 S&P 500 7,719 Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
Recreated interpretation Source: FRED DGS10; Yahoo Finance ^GSPC; Yahoo Finance ^NDX ·
As of 14 Oct 2026 ·
Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC ·
Inspired by @KobeissiLetter , 2026-09-28
Show the original post
Chart posted by @KobeissiLetter · 2026-09-28
UST 10YR: +118 bp over the past year, to 5.21%.
4.00% 4.50% 5.00% UST 10YR 5.21% 0 2,000 4,000 Gold 4,108 Silver 56 Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
Recreated interpretation Source: FRED DGS10; Yahoo Finance GC=F; Yahoo Finance SI=F ·
As of 14 Oct 2026 ·
Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC ·
Inspired by @KobeissiLetter , 2026-09-28
Show the original post
Chart posted by @Barchart · 2026-09-28
UST 30YR: +94 bp over the past year, to 5.56%.
4.00% 4.50% 5.00% 5.50% UST 30YR 5.56% UST 10YR 5.21% Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
Recreated interpretation Source: FRED DGS30; FRED DGS10 ·
As of 13 Oct 2026 ·
Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC ·
Inspired by @Barchart , 2026-09-28
Show the original post
Chart posted by @Barchart · 2026-09-28
UST 2YR: +131 bp over the past year, to 4.79%.
2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% UST 2YR 4.79% JGB 10YR 3.12% Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
Recreated interpretation Source: FRED DGS2; CNBC JP10Y-JP ·
As of 13 Oct 2026 ·
Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC ·
Inspired by @Barchart , 2026-09-28
Show the original post
Chart posted by @KobeissiLetter · 2026-09-28
UST 10YR: +118 bp over the past year, to 5.21%.
4.00% 4.50% 5.00% UST 10YR 5.21% 6,500 7,000 7,500 S&P 500 7,719 Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
Recreated interpretation Source: FRED DGS10; Yahoo Finance ^GSPC ·
As of 14 Oct 2026 ·
Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC ·
Inspired by @KobeissiLetter , 2026-09-28
Show the original post
Chart posted by @KobeissiLetter · 2026-09-27
UST 30YR: +94 bp over the past year, to 5.56%.
4.00% 5.00% UST 30YR 5.56% UST 10YR 5.21% UST 2YR 4.79% Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
Recreated interpretation Source: FRED DGS30; FRED DGS10; FRED DGS2 ·
As of 13 Oct 2026 ·
Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC ·
Inspired by @KobeissiLetter , 2026-09-27
Show the original post
Chart posted by @KobeissiLetter · 2026-09-27
UST 30YR: +94 bp over the past year, to 5.56%.
2.00% 4.00% UST 30YR 5.56% UST 10YR 5.21% US IG OAS 0.81% Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
Recreated interpretation Source: FRED DGS30; FRED DGS10; FRED BAMLC0A0CM ·
As of 13 Oct 2026 ·
Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC ·
Inspired by @KobeissiLetter , 2026-09-27
Show the original post
Chart posted by @Barchart · 2026-09-26
UST 10YR: +118 bp over the past year, to 5.21%.
4.00% 4.50% 5.00% UST 10YR 5.21% Oct 25 Jan 26 Apr 26 Jul 26 Oct 26
Recreated interpretation Source: FRED DGS10 ·
As of 13 Oct 2026 ·
Updated 2026-09-30 09:08 UTC ·
Inspired by @Barchart , 2026-09-26
Show the original post