Scorecard evidence · Market Today

Cash & money market IDR

Fixed income · + favours IDR cash / money market over duration

Evidence

Pillar	Measure	Reading	Rule
S	Rupiah pressure beyond the dollar (20d)	+1,18% residual · USD/IDR +1,11%, DXY +1,46%	desk Money Market IDR · flow lens
S	Interbank rate (INDONIA proxy) minus BI-Rate	-29 bps	desk Money Market IDR · flow lens
S	FX reserves, latest monthly change	+1,2 USD bn · now 146,5	desk Money Market IDR · flow lens
S	Policy tone (dovish vs hawkish)	1 dovish / 4 hawkish mentions	desk Money Market IDR · news lens
S	USD/IDR realised volatility (20d)	11,0% annualised · p82	desk Money Market IDR · sentiment lens
S	INDOGB 10Y yield realised volatility (20d)	119,7 bps annualised · p87	desk Money Market IDR · sentiment lens
S	INDOGB 10Y yield trend	above 50d, above 200d, 50d > 200d · 3M +13 bps	desk Money Market IDR · pattern lens
F	Real money-market rate	+3,43 pp · SPN 3M yield 6,62% - CPI 3,19%	desk Money Market IDR · fundamentals lens
F	Fed path priced (UST 2Y - EFFR)	+1,04 pp · 2Y 4,92%, EFFR 3,88%	desk Money Market IDR · fundamentals lens
F	BI-Rate minus Fed funds (policy buffer)	+1,87 pp	desk Money Market IDR · fundamentals lens
V	Term spread (INDOGB 10Y - short rate)	+0,58 pp · 10Y 7,20% vs SPN 3M yield 6,62%	desk Money Market IDR · valuation lens
V	IDR cash vs USD cash (short rate - UST 3M)	+2,45 pp	desk Money Market IDR · valuation lens
F	IDR carry per unit of FX risk	0,30 · pick-up +2,45 pp / USD/IDR vol 8,1%	desk Money Market IDR · earnings lens
F	Duration cushion forgone (INDOGB 10Y 3M breakeven)	26 bps of yield rise absorbed	desk Money Market IDR · earnings lens

F = fundamentals, V = valuation, S = sentiment. Each reading is shown as measured; the cockpit's −2..+2 scores, pillar averages and suggested stance are left out because their weights have not been validated.

Source: Cockpit scorecard measures (readings only)

Data ↓

US Treasuries & USD bonds

Fixed income · + supportive for USD bond returns (yields lower)

Evidence

Pillar	Measure	Reading	Rule
S	TLT (20y+ UST) money flow (CMF 20d)	-0,20 · z -1,3 vs 2y	desk Fixed Income USD · flow lens
S	IEF (7-10y UST) money flow (CMF 20d)	-0,17 · z -0,9 vs 2y	desk Fixed Income USD · flow lens
S	LQD (IG credit) money flow (CMF 20d)	-0,16 · z -1,1 vs 2y	desk Fixed Income USD · flow lens
S	HYG (HY credit) money flow (CMF 20d)	-0,45 · z -3,0 vs 2y	desk Fixed Income USD · flow lens
S	TLT volume surge x direction	1,51x volume · 5d -4,14%	desk Fixed Income USD · flow lens
S	Headline tone (15 of 30 stories scored)	-0,49	desk Fixed Income USD · news lens
S	MOVE index (Treasury implied vol)	96,0 · p76 of 2y	desk Fixed Income USD · sentiment lens
S	Safe-haven demand (CNN component)	57 · greed	desk Fixed Income USD · sentiment lens
S	UST 10Y yield trend	above 50d, above 200d, 50d > 200d · 3M +87 bps	desk Fixed Income USD · pattern lens
S	UST 10Y yield RSI(14)	79,3	desk Fixed Income USD · sentiment lens
S	Curve regime, 1M (2Y vs 10Y)	bear flattener · 2Y +57 bps, 10Y +53 bps	desk Fixed Income USD · pattern lens
F	Core PCE inflation YoY	3,34% · 3M ann. 3,05%	desk Fixed Income USD · fundamentals lens
F	Core PCE momentum (3M ann. - YoY)	-0,30 pp	desk Fixed Income USD · fundamentals lens
F	Real policy rate (EFFR - core PCE)	+0,54 pp	desk Fixed Income USD · fundamentals lens
F	Fed path priced (UST 2Y - EFFR)	+1,04 pp	desk Fixed Income USD · fundamentals lens
F	Sahm rule (real-time)	-0,07	desk Fixed Income USD · fundamentals lens
F	Jobless claims, 4wk avg vs 6M ago	-4,0% · 202.250	desk Fixed Income USD · fundamentals lens
V	UST 10Y yield level	5,18% · p100 of 10y	desk Fixed Income USD · valuation lens
V	UST 10Y real yield (TIPS)	2,85% · p100 of 10y	desk Fixed Income USD · valuation lens
V	10Y term premium (Kim-Wright)	0,96% · p100 of 10y	desk Fixed Income USD · valuation lens
V	US IG OAS	0,81% · p39 of 3y	desk Fixed Income USD · valuation lens
V	US HY OAS	2,93% · p44 of 3y	desk Fixed Income USD · valuation lens
V	EM sovereign USD OAS	1,16% · p13 of 3y	desk Fixed Income USD · valuation lens
F	UST 10Y carry breakeven (3M)	16 bps · yield 5,25%	desk Fixed Income USD · earnings lens
F	US IG carry breakeven (3M)	21 bps · yield 5,88%	desk Fixed Income USD · earnings lens
F	US HY carry breakeven (3M)	61 bps · yield 7,87%	desk Fixed Income USD · earnings lens
F	Paid to extend (10Y - 3M)	+0,93 pp	desk Fixed Income USD · earnings lens
S	Crowd sentiment composite (sentiment board)	-0,50 · Bearish	trend, momentum, positioning, flows, news, social, analysts

F = fundamentals, V = valuation, S = sentiment. Each reading is shown as measured; the cockpit's −2..+2 scores, pillar averages and suggested stance are left out because their weights have not been validated.

Source: Cockpit scorecard measures (readings only)

Data ↓

Indonesia govt bonds (FR)

Fixed income · + supportive for INDOGB prices (yields lower)

Evidence

Pillar	Measure	Reading	Rule
S	EMLC (EM local bonds) money flow (CMF 20d)	-0,28 · z -1,6 vs 2y	desk Fixed Income IDR · flow lens
S	Foreign SBN holdings, 1M change	-1,2 IDR tn · now 908,2	desk Fixed Income IDR · flow lens
S	Foreign flow signature (20d)	0 buy-pattern vs 1 sell-pattern days	desk Fixed Income IDR · flow lens
S	Rupiah pressure beyond the dollar (20d)	+1,18% residual · USD/IDR +1,11%, DXY +1,46%	desk Fixed Income IDR · flow lens
S	Headline tone (4 of 12 stories scored)	0,00	desk Fixed Income IDR · news lens
S	Indonesia CDS 5Y, 1M change	+4 bps · now 88	desk Fixed Income IDR · sentiment lens
S	USD/IDR realised volatility (20d)	11,0% annualised · p82	desk Fixed Income IDR · sentiment lens
S	INDOGB 10Y yield realised volatility (20d)	119,7 bps annualised · p87	desk Fixed Income IDR · sentiment lens
S	INDOGB 10Y yield trend	above 50d, above 200d, 50d > 200d · 3M +13 bps	desk Fixed Income IDR · pattern lens
S	INDOGB 10Y yield RSI(14)	56,8	desk Fixed Income IDR · sentiment lens
S	INDOGB vs UST, 1M relative move	ID +24 bps vs UST +53 bps	desk Fixed Income IDR · pattern lens
F	INDOGB 10Y real yield	+4,01 pp · CPI 3,19%	desk Fixed Income IDR · fundamentals lens
F	BI-Rate minus Fed funds	+1,87 pp	desk Fixed Income IDR · fundamentals lens
F	UST 10Y, 1M change	1M +53 bps · now 5,25%	desk Fixed Income IDR · fundamentals lens
F	Dollar index, 1M change	1M +1,46% · now 101,16	desk Fixed Income IDR · fundamentals lens
F	Brent, 1M change	1M +9,84% · now 98,10	desk Fixed Income IDR · fundamentals lens
F	FX reserves, 3-print change	+1,2 USD bn	desk Fixed Income IDR · fundamentals lens
V	INDOGB 10Y - UST 10Y spread	+1,95 pp · p1 of 516 weeks	desk Fixed Income IDR · valuation lens
V	INDOGB 10Y yield level	7,196% · p74 of 517 weeks	desk Fixed Income IDR · valuation lens
V	Term spread (10Y - BI-Rate)	+1,45 pp	desk Fixed Income IDR · valuation lens
F	INDOGB 10Y carry breakeven (3M)	26 bps · yield 7,196%	desk Fixed Income IDR · earnings lens
F	Carry-to-FX-risk (USD investor)	0,24 · spread +1,95 pp / USD/IDR vol 8,1%	desk Fixed Income IDR · earnings lens
S	Crowd sentiment composite (sentiment board)	-0,38 · Neutral	trend, momentum, positioning, flows, news, social, analysts

F = fundamentals, V = valuation, S = sentiment. Each reading is shown as measured; the cockpit's −2..+2 scores, pillar averages and suggested stance are left out because their weights have not been validated.

Source: Cockpit scorecard measures (readings only)

Data ↓

US equities

Equity · + supportive for US equities

Evidence

Pillar	Measure	Reading	Rule
S	SPY money flow (CMF 20d)	+0,06 · z -0,2 vs 2y	desk US Equity · flow lens
S	SPY volume surge x direction	0,85x volume · 5d -0,87%	desk US Equity · flow lens
S	S&P 500 RSI(14)	52,2	desk US Equity · sentiment lens
S	S&P 500 realised volatility (20d)	11,0% annualised · p35	desk US Equity · sentiment lens
S	Sell-side Buy share (basket)	75% Buy · 3M -1,6 pp	desk US Equity · sentiment lens
S	S&P 500 trend	above 50d, above 200d, 50d > 200d · 3M +3,45%	desk US Equity · pattern lens
S	Large-cap breadth (share above 50d)	40% of 20	desk US Equity · pattern lens
S	S&P 500 seasonality (September)	avg -1,32% · up 3 of 6 years	desk US Equity · pattern lens
S	Headline tone (8 of 12 stories scored)	+0,75	desk US Equity · news lens
V	SPY trailing P/E	24,83x · P/B 1,79x	desk US Equity · valuation lens
V	Large-cap basket forward P/E	20,86x · 19 names	desk US Equity · valuation lens
V	Equity risk premium vs UST 10Y real	+1,95 pp · EY 4,80% - 2,85%	desk US Equity · valuation lens
V	Growth-adjusted P/E (PEG)	1,95 · next-FY EPS growth +10,7%	desk US Equity · valuation lens
V	Peak-earnings check (fwd / trailing P/E)	0,84 · fwd 20,86x vs trailing 24,83x	desk US Equity · valuation lens
F	EPS revision breadth (30d)	+0,39 · 15 names net up, 5 net down	desk US Equity · earnings lens
F	Next-FY EPS estimate change (median)	30d +0,23% · 90d +1,00%	desk US Equity · earnings lens
S	QQQ money flow (CMF 20d)	+0,25 · z +1,0 vs 2y	desk US Equity · flow lens
S	Cyclical vs defensive rotation (1M)	cyclicals -3,06% vs defensives -3,35%	desk US Equity · flow lens
S	CNN Fear & Greed	35 fear · 1W ago 34	desk US Equity · sentiment lens
S	Put/call options (CNN component)	41 · fear	desk US Equity · sentiment lens
S	VIX term structure (VIX / VIX3M)	0,88 · VIX 16,0	desk US Equity · sentiment lens
S	Sector breadth (share above 50d)	36% of 11	desk US Equity · pattern lens
S	Equal-weight vs cap-weight (3M)	RSP minus SPY -4,93%	desk US Equity · pattern lens
F	Atlanta Fed GDPNow	5,02% saar · quarter 2026-07	desk US Equity · fundamentals lens
F	Sahm rule (real-time)	-0,07	desk US Equity · fundamentals lens
F	Jobless claims, 4wk avg vs 6M ago	-4,0% · 202.250	desk US Equity · fundamentals lens
F	Chicago Fed financial conditions (NFCI)	-0,56	desk US Equity · fundamentals lens
F	UST 10Y real yield	2,85%	desk US Equity · fundamentals lens
F	Beat rate, last 2 weeks (mcap > $10bn)	73% of 11 · median surprise +2,8%	desk US Equity · earnings lens
S	Crowd sentiment composite (sentiment board)	0,41 · Neutral	trend, momentum, positioning, flows, news, social, analysts

F = fundamentals, V = valuation, S = sentiment. Each reading is shown as measured; the cockpit's −2..+2 scores, pillar averages and suggested stance are left out because their weights have not been validated.

Source: Cockpit scorecard measures (readings only)

Data ↓

Tech & AI

Equity · + supportive for tech / AI equities

Evidence

Pillar	Measure	Reading	Rule
F	EPS revisions, 30d (median of ~80 tech names)	0,31%	+1% median upgrade = +1
F	Revenue growth (median, YoY)	24,9%	15% = neutral, each 10pp = 1 point
F	Hyperscaler capex growth (YoY, 2026Q2)	86,5% · USD 181,5 bn	demand for the AI supply chain; 20% = neutral
F	Hyperscaler capex / operating cash flow (median)	115%	above ~80% the spend is eating the cash flow (FCF squeeze)
V	Forward P/E (median)	22,6x	28x = neutral
V	Analyst target upside (median)	26,2%	10% = neutral
V	SOX vs 200-day average	21,8%	more than 10% above trend = stretched
S	Crowd sentiment across tech themes (mean)	0,53	sentiment board composites
S	Tech names above their 50-day average	51%	50% = neutral
S	Trend (price vs 50D/200D)	above 50D, above 200D	–
S	Crowd sentiment composite (sentiment board)	0,68 · Bullish	trend, momentum, positioning, flows, news, social, analysts

F = fundamentals, V = valuation, S = sentiment. Each reading is shown as measured; the cockpit's −2..+2 scores, pillar averages and suggested stance are left out because their weights have not been validated.

Source: Cockpit scorecard measures (readings only)

Data ↓

Korea

Equity · + supportive for Korean equities

Evidence

Pillar	Measure	Reading	Rule
S	EWY money flow (CMF 20d)	-0,04 · z -1,0 vs 2y	desk Korea Equity · flow lens
S	EWY volume surge x direction	0,68x volume · 5d -3,14%	desk Korea Equity · flow lens
S	KOSPI RSI(14)	57,4	desk Korea Equity · sentiment lens
S	KOSPI realised volatility (20d)	31,4% annualised · p60	desk Korea Equity · sentiment lens
S	Sell-side Buy share (basket)	93% Buy · 3M -0,1 pp	desk Korea Equity · sentiment lens
S	KOSPI trend	above 50d, above 200d, 50d > 200d · 3M -16,41%	desk Korea Equity · pattern lens
S	Large-cap breadth (share above 50d)	40% of 10	desk Korea Equity · pattern lens
S	KOSPI seasonality (September)	avg -1,37% · up 3 of 6 years	desk Korea Equity · pattern lens
S	Headline tone (24 of 30 stories scored)	-0,51	desk Korea Equity · news lens
V	EWY trailing P/E	10,62x · P/B 2,09x	desk Korea Equity · valuation lens
V	Large-cap basket forward P/E	4,15x · 10 names	desk Korea Equity · valuation lens
V	Equity risk premium vs Korea 10Y	+19,56 pp · EY 24,11% - 4,54%	desk Korea Equity · valuation lens
V	Growth-adjusted P/E (PEG)	0,25 · next-FY EPS growth +16,4%	desk Korea Equity · valuation lens
V	Peak-earnings check (fwd / trailing P/E)	0,39 · fwd 4,15x vs trailing 10,62x	desk Korea Equity · valuation lens
F	EPS revision breadth (30d)	+0,07 · 6 names net up, 4 net down	desk Korea Equity · earnings lens
F	Next-FY EPS estimate change (median)	30d +0,14% · 90d +4,30%	desk Korea Equity · earnings lens
S	Foreign net buying, KOSPI	20d -18,1 KRW tn · 5d -8,0	desk Korea Equity · flow lens
F	PHLX Semiconductor, 3M change	3M -9,31% · now 12.432,75	desk Korea Equity · fundamentals lens
F	USD/KRW, 1M change	1M -1,58% · now 1.358,68	desk Korea Equity · fundamentals lens
F	Korea exports YoY	+70,7% · 2026-06	desk Korea Equity · fundamentals lens
F	Korea 10Y yield, 1M change	1M +27 bps · now 4,54%	desk Korea Equity · fundamentals lens
S	Crowd sentiment composite (sentiment board)	0,03 · Neutral	trend, momentum, positioning, flows, news, social, analysts

F = fundamentals, V = valuation, S = sentiment. Each reading is shown as measured; the cockpit's −2..+2 scores, pillar averages and suggested stance are left out because their weights have not been validated.

Source: Cockpit scorecard measures (readings only)

Data ↓

Taiwan

Equity · + supportive for Taiwanese equities

Evidence

Pillar	Measure	Reading	Rule
S	EWT money flow (CMF 20d)	+0,14 · z +0,3 vs 2y	desk Taiwan Equity · flow lens
S	EWT volume surge x direction	1,31x volume · 5d -1,74%	desk Taiwan Equity · flow lens
S	TAIEX RSI(14)	63,8	desk Taiwan Equity · sentiment lens
S	TAIEX realised volatility (20d)	17,3% annualised · p40	desk Taiwan Equity · sentiment lens
S	Sell-side Buy share (basket)	79% Buy · 3M +3,0 pp	desk Taiwan Equity · sentiment lens
S	TAIEX trend	above 50d, above 200d, 50d > 200d · 3M +7,75%	desk Taiwan Equity · pattern lens
S	Large-cap breadth (share above 50d)	90% of 10	desk Taiwan Equity · pattern lens
S	TAIEX seasonality (September)	avg -1,94% · up 1 of 6 years	desk Taiwan Equity · pattern lens
V	EWT trailing P/E	28,77x · P/B 1,96x	desk Taiwan Equity · valuation lens
V	Large-cap basket forward P/E	18,25x · 10 names	desk Taiwan Equity · valuation lens
V	Growth-adjusted P/E (PEG)	0,83 · next-FY EPS growth +22,0%	desk Taiwan Equity · valuation lens
V	Peak-earnings check (fwd / trailing P/E)	0,63 · fwd 18,25x vs trailing 28,77x	desk Taiwan Equity · valuation lens
F	EPS revision breadth (30d)	+0,66 · 8 names net up, 2 net down	desk Taiwan Equity · earnings lens
F	Next-FY EPS estimate change (median)	30d +0,08% · 90d +10,44%	desk Taiwan Equity · earnings lens
S	Foreign net buying, TWSE	20d +103,4 TWD bn · 5d +157,1	desk Taiwan Equity · flow lens
F	PHLX Semiconductor, 3M change	3M -9,31% · now 12.432,75	desk Taiwan Equity · fundamentals lens
F	USD/TWD, 1M change	1M +0,37% · now 31,78	desk Taiwan Equity · fundamentals lens
F	Copper, 3M change	3M +8,72% · now 6,63	desk Taiwan Equity · fundamentals lens
S	Crowd sentiment composite (sentiment board)	1,15 · Bullish	trend, momentum, positioning, flows, news, social, analysts

F = fundamentals, V = valuation, S = sentiment. Each reading is shown as measured; the cockpit's −2..+2 scores, pillar averages and suggested stance are left out because their weights have not been validated.

Source: Cockpit scorecard measures (readings only)

Data ↓

China / Hong Kong

Equity · + supportive for China/HK equities

Evidence

Pillar	Measure	Reading	Rule
S	MCHI money flow (CMF 20d)	-0,28 · z -2,0 vs 2y	desk China Equity · flow lens
S	MCHI volume surge x direction	0,60x volume · 5d -2,58%	desk China Equity · flow lens
S	Hang Seng RSI(14)	37,8	desk China Equity · sentiment lens
S	Hang Seng realised volatility (20d)	12,3% annualised · p1	desk China Equity · sentiment lens
S	Sell-side Buy share (basket)	89% Buy · 3M +0,8 pp	desk China Equity · sentiment lens
S	Hang Seng trend	below 50d, below 200d, 50d < 200d · 3M +6,44%	desk China Equity · pattern lens
S	Large-cap breadth (share above 50d)	20% of 10	desk China Equity · pattern lens
S	Hang Seng seasonality (September)	avg -3,53% · up 1 of 6 years	desk China Equity · pattern lens
S	Headline tone (7 of 9 stories scored)	+0,14	desk China Equity · news lens
V	MCHI trailing P/E	11,42x	desk China Equity · valuation lens
V	Large-cap basket forward P/E	8,45x · 10 names	desk China Equity · valuation lens
V	Equity risk premium vs China 10Y CGB	+10,14 pp · EY 11,83% - 1,69%	desk China Equity · valuation lens
V	Growth-adjusted P/E (PEG)	0,48 · next-FY EPS growth +17,7%	desk China Equity · valuation lens
V	Peak-earnings check (fwd / trailing P/E)	0,74 · fwd 8,45x vs trailing 11,42x	desk China Equity · valuation lens
F	EPS revision breadth (30d)	+0,11 · 5 names net up, 5 net down	desk China Equity · earnings lens
F	Next-FY EPS estimate change (median)	30d -0,31% · 90d -0,71%	desk China Equity · earnings lens
S	KWEB (China internet) money flow (CMF 20d)	-0,28 · z -2,0 vs 2y	desk China Equity · flow lens
S	ASHR (onshore A-shares) money flow (CMF 20d)	-0,25 · z -1,8 vs 2y	desk China Equity · flow lens
S	CSI 300 trend	below 50d, below 200d, 50d < 200d · 3M -12,83%	desk China Equity · pattern lens
F	China 10Y yield, 3M change	3M -4 bps · now 1,69%	desk China Equity · fundamentals lens
F	USD/CNY, 1M change	1M -0,35% · now 6,70	desk China Equity · fundamentals lens
F	Copper/gold ratio, 3M change	+5,50%	desk China Equity · fundamentals lens
F	Iron ore, 1M change	1M +1,55% · now 97,06	desk China Equity · fundamentals lens
S	Crowd sentiment composite (sentiment board)	-0,50 · Bearish	trend, momentum, positioning, flows, news, social, analysts

F = fundamentals, V = valuation, S = sentiment. Each reading is shown as measured; the cockpit's −2..+2 scores, pillar averages and suggested stance are left out because their weights have not been validated.

Source: Cockpit scorecard measures (readings only)

Data ↓

Indonesia (IHSG)

Equity · + supportive for Indonesian equities

Evidence

Pillar	Measure	Reading	Rule
S	EIDO money flow (CMF 20d)	-0,37 · z -1,9 vs 2y	desk Indonesia Equity · flow lens
S	EIDO volume surge x direction	1,17x volume · 5d -3,84%	desk Indonesia Equity · flow lens
S	IHSG RSI(14)	37,2	desk Indonesia Equity · sentiment lens
S	IHSG realised volatility (20d)	14,2% annualised · p34	desk Indonesia Equity · sentiment lens
S	Sell-side Buy share (basket)	80% Buy · 3M -0,3 pp	desk Indonesia Equity · sentiment lens
S	IHSG trend	below 50d, below 200d, 50d < 200d · 3M +5,86%	desk Indonesia Equity · pattern lens
S	Large-cap breadth (share above 50d)	20% of 15	desk Indonesia Equity · pattern lens
S	IHSG seasonality (September)	avg -0,07% · up 3 of 6 years	desk Indonesia Equity · pattern lens
S	Headline tone (17 of 23 stories scored)	-0,82	desk Indonesia Equity · news lens
V	EIDO trailing P/E	9,13x	desk Indonesia Equity · valuation lens
V	Large-cap basket forward P/E	8,13x · 15 names	desk Indonesia Equity · valuation lens
V	Equity risk premium vs INDOGB 10Y	+5,11 pp · EY 12,31% - 7,20%	desk Indonesia Equity · valuation lens
V	Growth-adjusted P/E (PEG)	1,05 · next-FY EPS growth +7,7%	desk Indonesia Equity · valuation lens
V	Peak-earnings check (fwd / trailing P/E)	0,89 · fwd 8,13x vs trailing 9,13x	desk Indonesia Equity · valuation lens
F	EPS revision breadth (30d)	+0,28 · 10 names net up, 5 net down	desk Indonesia Equity · earnings lens
F	Next-FY EPS estimate change (median)	30d +0,06% · 90d -0,73%	desk Indonesia Equity · earnings lens
S	Rupiah pressure beyond the dollar (20d)	+1,18% residual · USD/IDR +1,11%, DXY +1,46%	desk Indonesia Equity · flow lens
S	Indonesia CDS 5Y, 1M change	+4 bps · now 88	desk Indonesia Equity · sentiment lens
F	USD/IDR, 1M change	1M +1,19% · now 17.960,00	desk Indonesia Equity · fundamentals lens
F	INDOGB 10Y, 1M change	1M +24 bps · now 7,20%	desk Indonesia Equity · fundamentals lens
F	UST 10Y, 1M change	1M +53 bps · now 5,25%	desk Indonesia Equity · fundamentals lens
F	Export metals (copper + gold), 1M	-3,54%	desk Indonesia Equity · fundamentals lens
S	Crowd sentiment composite (sentiment board)	-1,42 · Capitulation	trend, momentum, positioning, flows, news, social, analysts

F = fundamentals, V = valuation, S = sentiment. Each reading is shown as measured; the cockpit's −2..+2 scores, pillar averages and suggested stance are left out because their weights have not been validated.

Source: Cockpit scorecard measures (readings only)

Data ↓

US dollar

FX & commodities · + supportive for the dollar

Evidence

Pillar	Measure	Reading	Rule
F	UST-Bund 10YR spread, 1M change	+17 bps (now 1,60%)	wider spread pulls money into USD
F	Fed hike probability, next FOMC	100%	hawkish Fed = USD support
F	US growth nowcast (GDPNow)	5,0%	2% = neutral
V	DXY vs 5-year average	z -0,25	rich dollar = negative
V	US real effective exchange rate vs 5Y avg (BIS)	-0,6%	–
S	Dollar futures, leveraged-fund positioning	42 pct (3Y)	–
S	Trend (price vs 50D/200D)	above 50D, above 200D	–
S	Crowd sentiment composite (sentiment board)	0,59 · Bullish	trend, momentum, positioning, flows, news, social, analysts

F = fundamentals, V = valuation, S = sentiment. Each reading is shown as measured; the cockpit's −2..+2 scores, pillar averages and suggested stance are left out because their weights have not been validated.

Source: Cockpit scorecard measures (readings only)

Data ↓

Rupiah

FX & commodities · + supportive for the rupiah (USD/IDR lower)

Evidence

Pillar	Measure	Reading	Rule
F	BI-Rate minus Fed funds vs 5Y average	1,75% vs 1,41%	a fatter buffer supports IDR
F	Current account / GDP (latest quarter)	-3,3%	-1,5% of GDP = neutral
F	Real policy rate (BI-Rate - CPI)	2,56%	2% = neutral
V	Rupiah real effective exchange rate vs 5Y avg (BIS)	-11,0%	below average = cheap rupiah
V	USD/IDR vs 200-day average	+3,3%	rupiah stretched weak = room to recover
S	Foreign SBN holdings, ~1M change	IDR +0,9 tn	–
S	Top-10 foreign equity flows MTD (BRIDS)	IDR -2.178 bn net	–
S	Trend (price vs 50D/200D)	above 50D, above 200D	–
S	Crowd sentiment composite (sentiment board)	-1,15 · Bearish	trend, momentum, positioning, flows, news, social, analysts

F = fundamentals, V = valuation, S = sentiment. Each reading is shown as measured; the cockpit's −2..+2 scores, pillar averages and suggested stance are left out because their weights have not been validated.

Source: Cockpit scorecard measures (readings only)

Data ↓

Yen

FX & commodities · + supportive for the yen (USD/JPY lower)

Evidence

Pillar	Measure	Reading	Rule
F	US-Japan 10YR spread, 1M change	+29 bps (now 2,16%)	narrowing gap supports the yen
V	Yen real effective exchange rate vs 5Y avg (BIS)	-11,7%	–
V	USD/JPY vs 5-year average	z 1,02	very high USD/JPY = cheap yen
S	Yen futures, leveraged-fund positioning	88 pct (3Y)	–
S	Trend (price vs 50D/200D)	below 50D, below 200D	–
S	Crowd sentiment composite (sentiment board)	0,84 · Bullish	trend, momentum, positioning, flows, news, social, analysts

F = fundamentals, V = valuation, S = sentiment. Each reading is shown as measured; the cockpit's −2..+2 scores, pillar averages and suggested stance are left out because their weights have not been validated.

Source: Cockpit scorecard measures (readings only)

Data ↓

Gold

FX & commodities · + supportive for gold

Evidence

Pillar	Measure	Reading	Rule
F	10YR real yield, 1M change	+47 bps	rising real yields weigh on gold
F	Dollar (DXY), 1M change	+1,45%	–
V	Gold vs 200-day average	-8,6%	–
V	Gold vs 5-year average	z 1,44	–
S	Gold futures, speculative positioning	58 pct (3Y)	–
S	Trend (price vs 50D/200D)	below 50D, below 200D	–
S	Crowd sentiment composite (sentiment board)	-0,52 · Bearish	trend, momentum, positioning, flows, news, social, analysts

F = fundamentals, V = valuation, S = sentiment. Each reading is shown as measured; the cockpit's −2..+2 scores, pillar averages and suggested stance are left out because their weights have not been validated.

Source: Cockpit scorecard measures (readings only)

Data ↓

Oil

FX & commodities · + supportive for oil prices

Evidence

Pillar	Measure	Reading	Rule
F	China business confidence (NBS PMI)	49,8	50 = neutral
F	Copper, 3M change (global demand)	+7,99%	–
F	US growth nowcast (GDPNow)	5,0%	–
V	Brent vs 5-year average	z 1,11	–
S	WTI futures, speculative positioning	29 pct (3Y)	–
S	Trend (price vs 50D/200D)	above 50D, above 200D	–
S	Crowd sentiment composite (sentiment board)	0,27 · Neutral	trend, momentum, positioning, flows, news, social, analysts

F = fundamentals, V = valuation, S = sentiment. Each reading is shown as measured; the cockpit's −2..+2 scores, pillar averages and suggested stance are left out because their weights have not been validated.

Source: Cockpit scorecard measures (readings only)

Data ↓

Bitcoin

FX & commodities · + supportive for bitcoin

Evidence

Pillar	Measure	Reading	Rule
F	Stablecoin supply, 1M growth	+1,24%	dry powder entering crypto
F	Fed net liquidity, 1M change	USD -22 bn	–
V	Bitcoin vs 200-week average	+46%	–
S	CME bitcoin futures, leveraged funds	86 pct (3Y)	–
S	Trend (price vs 50D/200D)	above 50D, above 200D	–
S	Crowd sentiment composite (sentiment board)	0,99 · Bullish	trend, momentum, positioning, flows, news, social, analysts

F = fundamentals, V = valuation, S = sentiment. Each reading is shown as measured; the cockpit's −2..+2 scores, pillar averages and suggested stance are left out because their weights have not been validated.

Source: Cockpit scorecard measures (readings only)

Data ↓