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Gold overweight DEMO

Gold supported by falling real yields and a softer dollar.

View: Overweight · owner demo seed · last review 31 Aug 2026

Challenge this thesisRecord a viewDecision Memory
Status: needs review
0 support · 0 contradict · 9 to review

Rule: an accepted contradiction on a key factor, or a suggestion waiting more than 2 days, means "needs review". Otherwise the side with more accepted evidence since the last review decides: weakening or strengthening; equal = stable. No scores or weights.

Supports · 0 accepted, 1 waiting

18 Sep 2026 · US real yields · supports · suggested, waiting for review
Market move 2026-09-17: −7 bp (2.1× usual daily move) → falling
Evidence #13 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1

Challenges · 0 accepted, 6 waiting

29 Sep 2026 · US real yields · contradicts · suggested, waiting for review
Market move 2026-09-28: +7 bp (2.0× usual daily move) → rising
Evidence #23 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
25 Sep 2026 · US real yields · contradicts · suggested, waiting for review
Market move 2026-09-24: +9 bp (2.6× usual daily move) → rising
Evidence #10 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
24 Sep 2026 · US real yields · contradicts · suggested, waiting for review
Market move 2026-09-23: +13 bp (3.9× usual daily move) → rising
Evidence #11 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
19 Sep 2026 · US real yields · contradicts · suggested, waiting for review
Market move 2026-09-18: +7 bp (2.1× usual daily move) → rising
Evidence #12 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
17 Sep 2026 · US dollar · contradicts · suggested, waiting for review
Market move 2026-09-16: +0.66% (2.0× usual daily move) → stronger
Evidence #16 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
11 Sep 2026 · US real yields · contradicts · suggested, waiting for review
Market move 2026-09-10: +9 bp (2.8× usual daily move) → rising
Evidence #14 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
Neutral, unclear or rejected evidence (2)
14 Oct 2026 · US dollar · neutral · suggested, waiting for review
Reaction to US_CPI:2026-09: −0.08% → little changed · workflow
Evidence #26 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
11 Sep 2026 · US dollar · neutral · suggested, waiting for review
Reaction to US_CPI:2026-08: +0.03% → little changed · workflow
Evidence #15 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1

Data ↓

New evidence, waiting for review (9)

Suggested by the published data rules. Accept or reject each one above; nothing changes a view by itself.

Evidence map

US real yields
support · key · helps when falling
Since review: rising (+46 bp, 2.6× usual)
US dollar
support · helps when weaker
Since review: stronger (+2.86%, 1.5× usual)

Since review = the change since the last review compared with the series' usual move over the same number of days (1× or more counts as a move).

Versions

Every view recorded on this asset class, newest first, with the evidence accepted between one version and the next. Records are append-only.

#DateViewReasonByEvidence accepted before it
131 Aug 2026Overweight DEMODEMO placeholder, not a BCA house viewdemo seed–

Timeline

  1. 14 Oct 2026 reaction:US_CPI:2026-09:dxy · neutral · data_rule
  2. 28 Sep 2026 move:tips10y:2026-09-28 · contradicts · data_rule
  3. 24 Sep 2026 move:tips10y:2026-09-24 · contradicts · data_rule
  4. 23 Sep 2026 move:tips10y:2026-09-23 · contradicts · data_rule
  5. 18 Sep 2026 move:tips10y:2026-09-18 · contradicts · data_rule
  6. 17 Sep 2026 move:tips10y:2026-09-17 · supports · data_rule
  7. 16 Sep 2026 move:dxy:2026-09-16 · contradicts · data_rule
  8. 11 Sep 2026 reaction:US_CPI:2026-08:dxy · neutral · data_rule
  9. 10 Sep 2026 move:tips10y:2026-09-10 · contradicts · data_rule
  10. 31 Aug 2026 View 1: – → Overweight. DEMO placeholder, not a BCA house view · demo seed

Break conditions

Not defined yet. Break conditions (what would make the desk drop this thesis) need their own decision on how they are recorded and reviewed.