IDEN

← House View · Theses

Long Indonesia government bonds DEMO

Positive medium-term duration outlook on cooling inflation and room for policy easing.

View: Overweight · owner demo seed · last review 31 Aug 2026

Challenge this thesisRecord a viewDecision Memory
Status: needs review
0 support · 0 contradict · 13 to review

Rule: an accepted contradiction on a key factor, or a suggestion waiting more than 2 days, means "needs review". Otherwise the side with more accepted evidence since the last review decides: weakening or strengthening; equal = stable. No scores or weights.

Supports · 0 accepted, 2 waiting

1 Oct 2026 · Rupiah · supports · suggested, waiting for review
Market move 2026-09-30: −1.36% (2.7× usual daily move) → stronger
Evidence #22 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
26 Sep 2026 · Rupiah · supports · suggested, waiting for review
Market move 2026-09-25: −1.56% (3.3× usual daily move) → stronger
Evidence #7 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1

Challenges · 0 accepted, 6 waiting

14 Oct 2026 · US inflation · contradicts · suggested, waiting for review
Release US_CPI:2026-09: 3.7% → heating up · workflow
Evidence #25 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
2 Oct 2026 · Rupiah · contradicts · suggested, waiting for review
Market move 2026-10-01: +1.10% (2.2× usual daily move) → weaker
Evidence #24 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
29 Sep 2026 · Rupiah · contradicts · suggested, waiting for review
Market move 2026-09-28: +2.28% (4.7× usual daily move) → weaker
Evidence #6 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
24 Sep 2026 · US 10-year yield · contradicts · suggested, waiting for review
Market move 2026-09-23: +15 bp (3.7× usual daily move) → rising
Evidence #3 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
11 Sep 2026 · US 10-year yield · contradicts · suggested, waiting for review
Market move 2026-09-10: +12 bp (3.0× usual daily move) → rising
Evidence #4 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
3 Sep 2026 · Indonesia 10-year yield · contradicts · suggested, waiting for review
Market move 2026-09-02: +24 bp (3.1× usual daily move) → rising
Evidence #9 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
Neutral, unclear or rejected evidence (5)
14 Oct 2026 · Rupiah · neutral · suggested, waiting for review
Reaction to US_CPI:2026-09: +0.43% → little changed · workflow
Evidence #29 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
11 Sep 2026 · Indonesia 10-year yield · neutral · suggested, waiting for review
Reaction to US_CPI:2026-08: +6 bp → little changed · workflow
Evidence #8 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
11 Sep 2026 · Rupiah · neutral · suggested, waiting for review
Reaction to US_CPI:2026-08: +0.24% → little changed · workflow
Evidence #5 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
11 Sep 2026 · US 10-year yield · neutral · suggested, waiting for review
Reaction to US_CPI:2026-08: +1 bp → little changed · workflow
Evidence #2 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1
11 Sep 2026 · US inflation · neutral · suggested, waiting for review
Release US_CPI:2026-08: 3.4% → little changed · workflow
Evidence #1 · Rule: data_rule · desk-rules-v1

Data ↓

New evidence, waiting for review (13)

Suggested by the published data rules. Accept or reject each one above; nothing changes a view by itself.

Evidence map

US inflation
support · helps when cooling
US 10-year yield
risk · key · helps when falling
Since review: rising (+48 bp, 2.2× usual)
Rupiah
risk · key · helps when stronger
Since review: little changed (+1.09%, 0.4× usual)
Indonesia 10-year yield
support · helps when falling
Since review: little changed (+24 bp, 0.7× usual)

Since review = the change since the last review compared with the series' usual move over the same number of days (1× or more counts as a move).

Versions

Every view recorded on this asset class, newest first, with the evidence accepted between one version and the next. Records are append-only.

#DateViewReasonByEvidence accepted before it
131 Aug 2026Overweight DEMODEMO placeholder, not a BCA house viewdemo seed–

Timeline

  1. 14 Oct 2026 release:US_CPI:2026-09 · contradicts · data_rule
  2. 14 Oct 2026 reaction:US_CPI:2026-09:usdidr · neutral · data_rule
  3. 1 Oct 2026 move:usdidr:2026-10-01 · contradicts · data_rule
  4. 30 Sep 2026 move:usdidr:2026-09-30 · supports · data_rule
  5. 28 Sep 2026 move:usdidr:2026-09-28 · contradicts · data_rule
  6. 25 Sep 2026 move:usdidr:2026-09-25 · supports · data_rule
  7. 23 Sep 2026 move:ust10y:2026-09-23 · contradicts · data_rule
  8. 11 Sep 2026 release:US_CPI:2026-08 · neutral · data_rule
  9. 11 Sep 2026 reaction:US_CPI:2026-08:ust10y · neutral · data_rule
  10. 11 Sep 2026 reaction:US_CPI:2026-08:usdidr · neutral · data_rule
  11. 11 Sep 2026 reaction:US_CPI:2026-08:id10y · neutral · data_rule
  12. 10 Sep 2026 move:ust10y:2026-09-10 · contradicts · data_rule
  13. 2 Sep 2026 move:id10y:2026-09-02 · contradicts · data_rule
  14. 31 Aug 2026 View 1: – → Overweight. DEMO placeholder, not a BCA house view · demo seed

Break conditions

Not defined yet. Break conditions (what would make the desk drop this thesis) need their own decision on how they are recorded and reviewed.